Cricket Betting Tips For 2026 - New Zealand vs England 3rd Test

After winning the first Test match by 115 runs, the English side couldn’t put the off-field drama behind them, and the Black Caps pounced, winning the second match by 253 runs. It all comes down to this game!

After a short and dominant win for England to kick off this series, New Zealand came roaring back with their own dominant win in the second game. I thought New Zealand had a good chance in the second Test, but to win by 253 runs, what a statement! We can expect more runs at Trent Bridge, which is a batter-friendly ground and sunny days are expected.

Just like we’ve done all series long, we’re back for one final time to take a deep dive into all the key pieces of data you should know for this clash. So, before you finalise your cricket betting tips, make sure you check out what the BettingTop10 experts have to say about this all-important winner-take-all game of the series.

Odds thanks to BetandPlay (accurate at time of publication).

New Zealand

New Zealand were on point pretty much the entire second Test match. England won the toss and sent the Black Caps into bat, piling on almost 400 runs in the first innings. It was the final innings that was most impressive for New Zealand with the ball, though, knocking over England for just 209 to win by over 250 runs.

Most of the batters did contribute, with the likes of Rachin Ravindra, Caryl Mitchell, Tom Blundell, Glenn Phillips, and Kyle Jamieson all scoring 30+ runs in the first innings. The top order still looks a bit shaky, so this is certainly something they will have to address coming into this final Test match. Devon Conway only scored nine and 11.

The bowlers were the real standouts, especially with good weather around; the likes of Matt Henry really stepped up. He got New Zealand’s best-ever bowling figures against England with 11 wickets. I expect they’ll be looking to in-form Matt Henry once again at Trent Bridge, but he’ll have his work cut out for him on what is a batter-friendly ground.

England

England struggled with a whole bunch of debutants, with the likes of James Rew and Jordan Cox not really firing with the bat. But the good news is that both Ben Stokes and Gus Atkinson should be back for this one, and Ben Stokes will be taking the captaincy back from Joe Root. Can the English side find some stability now?

This looks like a batter-friendly pitch, so my attention turns to Harry Brook; he has been there or thereabouts in multiple innings, without really putting the sword to his opposition. He has a great record against New Zealand, averaging 62.84 from seven Tests, including three hundreds and five fifties. This could be his time, on a sunny Trent Bridge deck.

With Gus Atkinson back, this really bolsters England’s bowling attack (and Ben Stokes is certainly no slouch with the ball either). Expect both Jofra Archer and Ollie Robinson to make an impact as well, on a pitch that tends to reward high-quality fast bowling. England has all the ingredients to win this clash, but they’ll have to put it all together.

New Zealand and England have split the last two Test matches in this series, so the winner of this clash will also win the series. Before this series, these two teams played another three-game series in 2024, which went the way of England 2-1 (and all three games featured dominant wins to one side).

The most vital trends that you should be aware of leading into this match: 

• England have won just two of their last eight Test matches, and they’re now in the negative under Brendon McCullum since 2023, with 17 wins and 18 losses.
• Trent Bridge is one of the best batting grounds in England, with an average first-innings score of over 330.
• Matt Henry was the player of the match in the second Test, taking 11 wickets, which was New Zealand’s best-ever bowling figures against England.

Trent Bridge is typically a batter-friendly ground, but it does still reward quality fast bowling, so this one could be an evenly balanced affair. If England can find some stability, they are good enough to win this one, especially at home. However, the Black Caps do come into this one with all the confidence in the world.

Multiple batters fired for New Zealand getting off to great starts, and the bowlers (especially Matt Henry) backed them up. I don’t expect England to just roll over here, and in front of their home crowd, they’d want to make up for their performance last time out. With Ben Stokes and Gus Atkinson back, I think they should win this.

Take England’s opening partnership total over 32.5 runs @ $1.85.

With the series level at 1-1, everything comes down to this, and the pressure will be high. The temperature will be high as well, so how will the teams cope with that? New Zealand bounced back very well in the last Test, but now, Ben Stokes and Gus Atkinson are back for England, so this one shouldn't be another walk in the park. Before the first ball is bowled, make sure you get all your bets sorted, and check out any cricket betting promotions for extra value as well!