Premier League: Arsenal vs Aston Villa - Betting Tips, Odds & Prediction

Arsenal host Aston Villa on Wednesday morning New Zealand time in what is a proper heavyweight Premier League clash at the Emirates Stadium.

Arsenal are sitting pretty at the top of the ladder after a gritty 2–1 win over Brighton, but Aston Villa are right on their tail. People keep waiting for Villa to drop off, but after they rolled Chelsea 2–1 at Stamford Bridge a few days ago, it’s clear they aren’t going anywhere. 

Can Arsenal extend their lead, or will Aston Villa make it 12 wins on the trot? Read on to find out my take, plus how you could be raking in a $3.50 return on football betting sites this week.

Arsenal

I reckon Arsenal have never looked more like champions than they do right now. The league leaders are controlling games with a level of maturity we haven’t seen from them before. 

Their home record is basically a fortress—seven wins and a draw from eight games at the Carpet this season. Tactically, Arteta has evolved this side into something special. With Martin Zubimendi sitting deep and allowing Declan Rice to bomb forward, they’re far more unpredictable than last year.

The result is an Arsenal side that suffocates teams. If they don’t get you in open play, they’ll get you from a corner—they’ve got the best set-piece record in the league for a reason. Gabriel is the main man there, and having him fit is massive. 

My only real worry is the right-back slot with Ben White out. If Unai Emery targets that makeshift flank, things could get hairy, but Arsenal’s overall structure is usually solid enough to cope.

Team News: Gabriel and William Saliba are fit. Ben White is out. Jurrien Timber and Riccardo Calafiori are late fitness tests. Kai Havertz is back in training but might start on the bench.

Predicted Lineup: Raya; Timber, Saliba, Gabriel, Zinchenko; Zubimendi, Rice, Odegaard; Saka, Gyokeres, Martinelli.

Aston Villa

You’ve got to love what Aston Villa are doing right now. They’re playing with so much confidence that they honestly look like they expect to win every time they step onto the pitch. 

The win at Chelsea was a masterclass, but it came at a price. Losing both Matty Cash and Boubacar Kamara to suspension for five yellow cards is a total disaster for Unai Emery. Without Kamara shielding the back four and Cash’s energy on the right, they look vulnerable. They’re also missing Pau Torres at the back, so they’ll likely have to rely on Victor Lindelof and Ezri Konsa to keep things tight. 

I’ve seen some bold takes on the best sports betting apps NZ suggesting an upset, but it’s a big ask with these absences.

Team News: Matty Cash and Boubacar Kamara are suspended. Tyrone Mings, Pau Torres, and Ross Barkley are out long-term. Emi Martinez is fit.

Predicted Lineup: Martinez; Nedeljkovic, Konsa, Lindelof, Digne; Onana, Tielemans; McGinn, Rogers, Buendia; Watkins.

• Aston Villa have won 11 matches in a row across all competitions.
• Arsenal are unbeaten in their last nine Premier League games at the Emirates Stadium.
• Aston Villa beat Arsenal 2–1 earlier this month thanks to a 95th-minute winner from Emi Buendia.
• Both teams have scored in four of the last five meetings between these two sides.

This is easily the toughest game to call this week. Arsenal are the best team in the country, but Aston Villa are the most in-form. I think the return of Gabriel and Saliba as a pairing is the deciding factor, especially as Villa are so depleted in midfield and at full-back. Amadou Onana is a decent replacement for Kamara, but he doesn’t have the same tactical discipline.

Villa will definitely have their moments, especially with Ollie Watkins playing the way he is, but Arsenal’s ability to keep the ball and tire teams out usually tells in the final 20 minutes. Expect a high-quality game where both sides go for it. I don’t see a clean sheet for either side, but I reckon Arsenal’s home advantage will just get them over the line in a thriller. 

If you’re using free bets this week, a 2–1 home win is where my head is at.

Arsenal to Win & Both Teams to Score @ $3.50

I’m going for a bit of value here. Arsenal are too strong at home to ignore, but Aston Villa’s scoring record is ridiculous—they’ve found the net in every away game this season. 

With Matty Cash missing for Villa and Arsenal’s full-back situation still looking shaky, there’s going to be space for the wingers. Arsenal should have enough quality to outscore them, but don’t expect a boring 1–0.

Getting $3.50 at Bet and Play for a home win where Villa also bag a goal is a top-tier shout in my book.