Premier League: Arsenal vs Bournemouth - Betting Tips, Odds & Prediction

Arsenal and Bournemouth meet at the Emirates Stadium just before midnight Saturday NZT in Matchweek 32 of the Premier League. I think this one has draw written all over it - until you remember Arsenal’s home record this season.

In this Arsenal vs Bournemouth preview, I’m looking at form and the key tactical angles. I’ve also got a play at odds above $3.00 on the best betting sites NZ for anyone wanting to get involved.

Arsenal

Let’s be honest - Arsenal look tired. They lost the League Cup final 2-0 to Manchester City, then got dumped out of the FA Cup by Southampton of all clubs. Their 1-0 win at Sporting in the Champions League quarter-final on Tuesday masked some of those issues, with Kai Havertz scoring in added time after David Raya had bailed them out.

In the Premier League, though, the picture is different. Arsenal are now four wins on the bounce: Spurs 4-1, Chelsea 2-1, Brighton 0-1, Everton 2-0. They’ve got 70 points from 31 games and the best defensive record in the division with just 22 goals conceded. Arsenal at the Emirates have been close to unbeatable this season, winning seven on the trot.

What concerns me is their schedule. This fixture is sandwiched between two Champions League quarter-final legs against Sporting, with Manchester City away a week later. Arteta will have to manage minutes, and I wouldn’t be surprised if their approach mirrors the low-block, counter-punching style they used in Lisbon. 

Viktor Gyokeres and Havertz will feed off scraps if Bournemouth set up the way I think they will, but Arsenal’s set-piece threat - particularly from Bukayo Saka’s delivery when he’s on the pitch - gives them another avenue.

Team News: Eze (calf) and Merino (foot) are long-term absentees. Hincapie is doubtful with a muscle problem. Saka and Timber could return after missing the Sporting trip but aren’t guaranteed starters. Rice, Trossard, and Gabriel all played on Tuesday and should be available.

Predicted Lineup: Raya; Timber, Saliba, Gabriel, Calafiori; Zubimendi, Rice; Saka, Odegaard, Martinelli; Gyokeres.

Bournemouth

Bournemouth are the Premier League’s draw specialists this season, with 15 stalemates from 31 matches and five consecutive low-scoring shares of the spoils. Their unbeaten run stretches to 11 league games now, which sounds impressive - until you notice they’ve won just once since mid-February.

Their last outing was a 2-2 draw with Manchester United on March 21, and most of their squad had the full international break to recharge. That level of freshness is a real advantage here. While Arsenal’s players were grinding through cup exits and a midweek trip to Lisbon, Bournemouth’s starters were putting their feet up.

Eli Junior Kroupi has been a revelation this season. Nine Premier League goals as a teenager, including that long-range screamer at the Vitality in January when Arsenal came away with a 3-2 win. If he’s fit on Saturday - and there’s a question mark over that - he’ll be Bournemouth’s most dangerous player. 

I don’t hate the idea of Bournemouth nicking a point, either. Andoni Iraola will set up compact and look to frustrate Arsenal before countering through Evanilson’s pace.

Team News: Cook and Soler are out with hamstring and muscle injuries respectively. Kluivert is sidelined with a knee problem. Adams is a doubt. Kroupi is rated 50/50 with an unspecified issue.

Predicted Lineup: Petrovic; Jimenez, Hill, Senesi, Truffert; Christie, Scott; Tavernier, Kroupi, Adli; Evanilson.

• Arsenal have won seven straight home matches at the Emirates across all competitions.
• Bournemouth have drawn their last five Premier League fixtures and are unbeaten in 11.
• Arsenal won the reverse fixture 3-2 at the Vitality Stadium in January, with Declan Rice scoring twice.
• Bournemouth have 15 draws from 31 league games this season - the most in the division.
• Arsenal have scored 61 Premier League goals, more than any other club, and conceded just 22.

I’m expecting Arsenal to win, but I’m not confident about the margin. 

Bournemouth don’t lose games right now - they just can’t seem to win them either. Iraola’s side will come here rested after three weeks off, while Arsenal are squeezed between Champions League quarter-final legs. Their home form is too good to ignore, though. Seven consecutive wins at the Emirates.

I’m tipping Arsenal 2-0 or 2-1. If Saka and Timber are back in the XI, I’d feel a lot better about it. Without them, this could easily drift into a low-scoring arm-wrestle. 

For those using football betting sites, this is one of those games where the margin of victory could come down to a set piece or a moment of individual brilliance.

Arsenal to Win by Exactly 1 Goal @ $3.00

Four of Arsenal’s last six wins have been by a single goal. They ground out 1-0s against Brighton and Sporting, and edged Chelsea 2-1. With the Sporting return leg four days later, I don’t see Arteta’s side going all-out here.

Bournemouth will frustrate them for long stretches. They’ve conceded just eight goals across their last 10 games, and Iraola’s low block is well drilled. But I don’t think they’ve got enough creativity away from home to score more than once, if at all.

If you’re on NZ betting apps, the $3.00 for a one-goal Arsenal victory is where I’m putting my money.