Premier League: Arsenal vs Chelsea - Betting Tips, Odds & Prediction

Not only is the Premier League clash between Arsenal and Chelsea on Monday NZT one of the biggest fixtures of the season, but it’s also got huge table implications. 

League leaders Arsenal will be looking to tighten their grip on top spot when they walk onto the pitch at Emirates Stadium. Chelsea, on the other hand, desperately need a result to continue their top-four push.

In this Arsenal vs Chelsea preview, I breakdown the form, stats, and key absences shaping this London derby. I’ve also identified a value play north of $6.00 that offers serious bang for your buck on NZ betting sites.

Arsenal

Arsenal are in ominous form right now.

Their 4-1 demolition of Spurs in Monday’s North London derby was their strongest display in weeks. That’s saying something, considering they haven’t lost in over a month. Viktor Gyokeres and Eberechi Eze each bagged a brace and looked razor sharp. With 56 total goals scored this campaign, they’ve got goals coming from everywhere.

At home, they’ve won 10 of 13 league games this season. Combine that with the fact that Arsenal haven’t lost a PL match to Chelsea since 2021 -  eight league games unbeaten against the Blues - and this match seems to be headed just one way. 

Team News: Merino is out long-term with a broken foot. Havertz and White are both doubts. Saka should be fit despite a late knock against Spurs.

Predicted Lineup: Raya; Timber, Saliba, Gabriel, Hincapie; Zubimendi, Rice; Saka, Odegaard, Martinelli; Gyokeres.

Chelsea

Chelsea’s season has been a mixed bag, and January’s managerial change hasn’t magically changed that.

Under Liam Rosenior, results have been up and down. Consecutive draws against Leeds and Burnley most recently have seen them slip to fifth, with Liverpool now breathing down their neck. Those dropped points were self-inflicted too; Fofana’s red card against Burnley was their eighth this season.

Joao Pedro has been excellent with 11 league goals, and Enzo Fernandez is contributing well from an advanced role. But their defensive record (31 goals conceded) tells its own story. The best sports betting apps in NZ paint a clear picture of Chelsea’s chances here - not great. 

Team News: Fofana is suspended. Cucurella and Estevao are both doubts with hamstring issues. Colwill and Gittens are long-term absentees. Lavia could return to the bench.

Predicted Lineup: Sanchez; James, Tosin, Chalobah, Gusto; Santos, Caicedo; Palmer, Fernandez, Neto; Joao Pedro.

• Arsenal are unbeaten in their last eight Premier League meetings with Chelsea.
• Over 2.5 goals has landed in five of Arsenal’s last six league games.
• Chelsea have conceded in 24 consecutive PL matches when priced as the underdog.
• Arsenal have won their last three home league matches against Chelsea.
• Both teams have scored in five of Chelsea’s last six away fixtures.

It’s hard to see Chelsea getting anything from this derby given their current form.

Arsenal will be full of confidence after their thrashing of Spurs. Gyokeres looks sharp again, Odegaard is back in the starting XI, and their midfield duo of Rice and Zubimendi controls with ease.

Chelsea’s injury list and Fofana’s suspension couldn’t come at a worse time. A patched-up defence against an Arsenal attack averaging over two goals a game at home doesn’t bode well for them. 

I do think Chelsea will score, though. Joao Pedro’s movement causes problems for even the best teams, and Palmer has the ability to produce something from nothing.

I’m tipping this to be a 2-1 Arsenal win. Big picture, the hosts will take care of business, but Chelsea will be competitive for stretches. For anyone looking for extra value with betting promotions, there’s a play I like even more below.

Arsenal to Win and Both Teams to Score @ $3.40

Chelsea have conceded in 24 straight games as the underdog, so expecting Arsenal to score feels like a given. And with 56 goals in 28 league games, they clearly don’t need much encouragement. On the flip side, Chelsea have scored in five of their last six away matches, and Pedro’s form means they’re always a chance.

Arsenal’s one weakness has been switching off at the back. They’ve made more errors leading to goals than almost any side in 2026, which opens the door for Chelsea to nick one.

Getting $3.40 at Betandplay for an Arsenal win with goals at both ends is a great bet, given these two sides’ tendencies.