EFL Cup: Arsenal vs Crystal Palace - Betting Tips, Odds & Prediction

Arsenal host Crystal Palace on Wednesday morning New Zealand time in a quarter-final between two teams heading in very different directions.

The home side are flying high at the top of the league, while their visitors are stuck in a rut they just can’t seem to shake. It’s a London derby with a semi-final spot on the line, but can Crystal Palace even be competitive against this Arsenal machine?

I break down the key details in my Arsenal vs Crystal Palace preview. From team news to stats, I dig into all you need to know, including a tasty $3.25 play for those after some Christmas value on betting sites in NZ.

Arsenal

Arsenal are about as relentless as it gets at the moment.

In their most recent fixture, they ground out a 1-0 win against Everton. It wasn’t pretty, but it was exactly the kind of result that wins trophies. Arsenal didn’t play their best football, yet they never really looked like conceding either. 

Coming into this cup tie, I expect some rotation, but their squad is so deep that this hardly matters. Gabriel Jesus is the big story here. He’s back from a long knee injury layoff and absolutely loves playing against Crystal Palace, having scored a hat-trick in this exact fixture last year. 

Team News: Jesus is set for his first start of the season. Ben White and Gabriel Magalhaes are still out injured, so Jakub Kiwior and Jurrien Timber should slot into the backline.

Predicted Lineup: Raya; Timber, Saliba, Kiwior, Zinchenko; Jorginho, Merino, Nwaneri; Sterling, Jesus, Martinelli.

Crystal Palace

It’s hard to find many positives for Crystal Palace right now.

They were absolutely battered by Leeds at the weekend, with the 4-1 scoreline flattering them. A bit of fixture congestion - playing in Europe on Thursdays and then the league on Sundays -  has Palace looking disjointed and tired.

It’s not a great time for them to head to the Emirates, which is about the toughest task in football currently. If Palace defend like they did against Leeds, Arsenal will tear them apart. They need to be compact, aggressive, and hope to catch Arsenal on the break, but I’m not sure they’ll have the legs for it.

Team News: Maxence Lacroix had a shocker at the weekend but might have to play again simply because there aren’t many other options.

Predicted Lineup: Henderson; Chalobah, Lacroix, Guehi; Munoz, Wharton, Kamada, Mitchell; Sarr, Nketiah, Mateta.

• Arsenal are unbeaten at home in all competitions this season.
• Crystal Palace have conceded nine goals in their last three matches.
• Jesus scored a hat-trick against Crystal Palace in the EFL Cup last December.
• Arsenal have won the last four meetings between these two sides.
• Arsenal have kept clean sheets in three of their last five home games.

I can’t see anything but a comfortable home win here.

Crystal Palace are in a world of trouble. Their confidence is shot, their defence is leaking goals, and they look knackered. Arsenal, on the other hand, are cruising along. Even with a few changes, they’re a cut above.

Arsenal should control the game from the first whistle. Expect them to dominate possession, pin Palace back, and create plenty of chances. With players like Jesus and Raheem Sterling out to impress, I think they’ll be too much for a sluggish Palace backline.

I’m predicting Arsenal to get the job done early and maybe even rest a few key legs in the second half. A 3-0 or 4-1 scoreline feels about right. As far as football betting tips go, back Arsenal to cover the handicap comfortably.

Gabriel Jesus to Score and Arsenal to Win @ $3.25

Jesus is back, he’s fresh, and has a brilliant record against Crystal Palace. He scored three against them in this competition last year, and will be itching to remind everyone how good he is.

If he starts, likely to be on penalties. Combine this with the service he’ll get from Ethan Nwaneri and Sterling, and there will be no shortage of chances for the Brazilian. Palace’s defence is all over the place, and Jesus is the perfect man to exploit those gaps.

Combining him to score with an Arsenal win boosts the odds nicely to $3.25 at Bet and Play. It’s a great way to use any free bets you might have sitting in your account.