Premier League: Arsenal vs Everton - Betting Tips, Odds & Prediction

Arsenal take on Everton at the Emirates Stadium on Sunday morning New Zealand time in a Premier League fixture with plenty on the line. 

The title race is the obvious storyline heading into this clash. Arsenal sit seven points clear at the top of the table. With Champions League fixtures floating around, do they rest players? Everton are no pushovers. Back-to-back wins over Newcastle and Burnley have them sitting eighth and eyeing European qualification. 

My Arsenal vs Everton preview digs into all this, and includes a play on the over goals market at close to $2.00 on one of the best betting sites in NZ.

Arsenal

It goes without saying that Arsenal are in fine form: four wins from their last five across all comps, with a 4-1 demo of Spurs in recent memory.

At home, they’re even sharper. We’re talking 11 wins from 14 in the league, 33 goals scored and only nine conceded. It’s primarily their set piece that Arsenal thieves on, with 16 goals from corners this season.

My one concern is who turns up for this clash, and how they’re feeling. The club played Bayer Leverkusen in the Champions League on Wednesday night and have another leg next week. Rotation or fatigue could come into play. Still, I expect a strong side here given the title implications.

Team News: Odegaard, Merino and White are out. Saliba is fit after an ankle issue, while Calafiori and Trossard trained this week and also should be available.

Predicted Lineup: Raya; Timber, Saliba, Hincapie, Calafiori; Zubimendi, Rice; Saka, Eze, Trossard; Gyokeres.

Everton

A fascinating twist coming into this match is that Everton have the best away record in the league, after Arsenal themselves. With seven wins from 14 on the road, they know how to get it done in adversity.

On their travels, Everton are compact, organised and dangerous on the counter through Iliman Ndiaye and Barry, who have 11 goals between them this season. James Garner has been excellent in midfield, dictating tempo and linking play.

But losing Jack Grealish to a foot injury for the rest of the season is an issue for Everton - he was their most creative player by some distance with six assists and two goals. Without him, the burden falls heavily on Ndiaye and Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall. Perhaps too heavily.

Team News: Grealish, Coleman and Alcaraz are unavailable. Branthwaite started against Burnley and should hold his place at centre-back.

Predicted Lineup: Pickford; O’Brien, Tarkowski, Branthwaite, Mykolenko; Gueye, Garner; McNeil, Dewsbury-Hall, Ndiaye; Barry.

• Arsenal have won 11 of 14 home league games this season, scoring 33 and conceding nine.
• Everton have the second-best away record in the Premier League with seven wins from 14.
• Arsenal won the reverse fixture 1-0 via a Gyokeres penalty.
• Everton have lost four of their last five meetings with Arsenal across all competitions.
• 53% of Arsenal’s league games this season have gone over 2.5 goals.

I can’t see anything other than an Arsenal win here, but I reckon Everton will sneak a goal.

Arsenal’s set-piece dominance is a nightmare for any side. Tarkowski and Branthwaite may be  strong in the air, but the sheer volume coming from Saka and Declan Rice overwhelms most defences eventually.

But Everton have scored in 10 of 14 away games this season. Ndiaye and Tarkowski are attacking threats, and Arsenal without Odegaard sometimes struggle to control the middle third the way they’d like.

I’m tipping Arsenal take this 2-1 or 3-1. For anyone with free bets to use, backing this one to produce three or more goals looks a good angle on football betting sites.

Over 2.5 Goals @ $1.91

This isn’t a complicated pick, and I love that it’s well-supported by some hard stats.

Arsenal average 1.97 goals per game in the league and have scored 33 at home. Over 2.5 has landed in 53% of their matches this season, and that percentage is higher at the Emirates where they’re far more efficient. Everton are right up there too - they’ve scored in 10 of 14 on the road and average 1.17 goals per game overall.

The reverse fixture was tight at 1-0, but that was at the Hill Dickinson where Everton sat deep and soaked up pressure. At the Emirates, with Arsenal’s set-piece threat and Everton’s willingness to counter, I’m confident we see at least three goals here.

At close to evens, this is where I’m putting my money.