Champions League: Arsenal vs Sporting CP - Betting Tips, Odds & Prediction

Arsenal and Sporting CP meet at the Emirates Stadium on Thursday morning New Zealand time for the second leg of their Champions League quarter-final, with Arsenal nursing a 1-0 lead from Lisbon.

Kai Havertz’s 91st-minute winner in the first leg was about as smash-and-grab as it gets. Sporting had chances - David Raya was excellent - and Rui Borges’s side will feel hard done by. In this Arsenal vs Sporting CP preview, I’ve got a play at odds above $3.00 for anyone using football tips to guide their Champions League punting.

Arsenal

I don’t know what to think about this Arsenal side right now. They’ve lost three straight domestic matches - the Carabao Cup final to Man City, an FA Cup exit at Southampton, and a 2-1 home defeat to Bournemouth on Saturday where they were second-best for long stretches. Viktor Gyokeres scored from the spot but couldn’t find a winner despite late openings.

Their Champions League form is a different story. Eight wins from eight, including a controlled away performance at the Jose Alvalade where Raya’s brilliance kept them in it before Havertz’s late strike. Arsenal know how to do European nights, and I’d expect a completely different side to the one that sleepwalked through the Bournemouth match.

Noni Madueke was the most dangerous attacker across both legs in Lisbon, and Gyokeres will want a big performance against his old club.

Team News: Saka and Timber are doubts. Odegaard missed Bournemouth with a knock. Calafiori, Hincapie and Merino are out. Eze returned on Saturday. Gabriel is a concern with knee issues.

Predicted Lineup: Raya; White, Saliba, Gabriel, Lewis-Skelly; Zubimendi, Rice; Madueke, Havertz, Martinelli; Gyokeres.

Sporting CP

Sporting got a 1-0 win at Estrela Amadora on Friday to close the gap on Porto in the Liga Portugal title race. Daniel Braganca scored the only goal. Borges clearly had the bigger picture on his mind.

I thought Sporting were good in the first leg. Possibly the better side for 85 minutes. Raya had to tip Maxi Araujo’s rising shot onto the crossbar inside six minutes, and Geny Catamo forced a couple of crucial late saves too. Sporting won’t feel like a side that’s 1-0 down.

Needing a goal at the Emirates changes their approach, though. They can’t use the same low block they used in Lisbon. Morten Hjulmand is back from suspension, which should give their midfield more steel.

Team News: Hjulmand available after suspension. Ioannidis, Guilherme and Quenda are out. Santos could return. Kochorashvili sidelined.

Predicted Lineup: Silva; Fresneda, Diomande, Inacio, Araujo; Hjulmand, Morita; Catamo, Trincao, Goncalves; Suarez.

• Arsenal have won all eight Champions League matches this season.
• Sporting have lost all five of their Champions League knockout first legs.
• Arsenal beat Sporting 5-1 at the Jose Alvalade in last season’s Champions League league phase.
• Sporting have won only two of 14 European matches against English opposition.
• Arsenal have won five of their last six home Champions League games, scoring 14 goals.

I’m going back and forth on this. Arsenal’s domestic form is poor right now - three defeats in a row is alarming, and the Bournemouth loss at home was arguably the worst of the lot. If they play like that again, Sporting have the quality to hurt them. Francisco Trincao and Catamo were a handful in Lisbon.

But Arsenal’s Champions League record is impossible to ignore. Eight from eight is proof of how Arteta’s side approach these nights, and their 1-0 lead gives them the luxury of not needing to chase the game. Sporting have to come out and play, which opens space for Gyokeres and Madueke on the counter.

I’m going Arsenal 2-1 on the night. If you’ve been looking at free bets ahead of the Champions League midweek action, the goals market is interesting given Sporting’s need to score at least once.

Arsenal to Win and Both Teams to Score @ $3.20

Sporting have to score. There’s no option for them to defend deep - they need at least one goal to take this to extra time. Borges will push players forward, and with Hjulmand back in midfield, I’d expect Trincao and Catamo to get more opportunities than they did in the first leg.

Five wins from six at the Emirates in Europe this season, with 14 goals scored. Havertz has a habit of coming off the bench and changing these games, and Gyokeres will want a big night against his old club. Arsenal should win, and Sporting should score while chasing the tie.

At $3.20 on the New Zealand betting sites, I’m happy to have a crack at it.