Premier League: Aston Villa vs Arsenal - Betting Tips, Odds & Prediction

Unai Emery will be licking his lips as Aston Villa host Arsenal at Villa Park on Sunday morning NZT. Since getting sacked by Arsenal in 2019, he's faced his former club nine times and lost just twice. Given how Villa have been playing lately, the league leaders should be worried.

I've put together team news, stats, lineups and a betting tip below in this Aston Villa vs Arsenal preview. The latest odds from NZ’s best betting sites are included too for those looking to have a punt.

Aston Villa

Remember when Villa took three points from their first five games? Well, that feels like a different season. Having won eight of their last nine in the league, they now sit third with Champions League qualification in their own hands.

Wednesday's 4-3 win at Brighton was chaotic, entertaining, and exactly the kind of performance that sums up Villa right now: down 2-0 inside 30 minutes, a brace to Ollie Watkins before half-time, then Amadou Onana and Donyell Malen finished the job. It wasn't pretty, but Villa found a way.

Their home form has been ridiculous too. Eight straight wins at Villa Park across all competitions, five of those in the Premier League. And Emery's record against Arsenal since leaving in 2019? Three wins, four draws, just two losses. The man knows how to set up against his former club.

There is one concern, however. Emiliano Martinez pulled out of the Brighton squad with a back issue during warm-ups. If he's not fit, Marco Bizot will be in instead. That's a significant downgrade against a side with Arsenal's attacking quality.

Team News: Other than Martinez, Ross Barkley and Tyrone Mings are also out. Watkins, however, is fit after his brace at Brighton.

Predicted Lineup: Martinez; Cash, Konsa, Torres, Digne; Kamara, Tielemans; McGinn, Rogers, Malen; Watkins.

Arsenal

Arsenal are top of the table, five points clear, and have lost just once all season, a defeat that came back in August against Liverpool. Since then, they’re 18 games unbeaten.

Their most recent win over Brentford midweek was professional without being spectacular. Mikel Merino opened the scoring before Bukayo Saka sealed it late for a 2-0 scoreline. However, Arsenal’s injury situation is becoming a genuine problem, with a host of sidelined players now.

Arsenal have won 15 Premier League games at Villa Park, their joint-most of any away ground in the competition. They travel well and tend to perform in big games. But with three centre-backs potentially unavailable, they're vulnerable in ways they haven't been all season.

Team News: Gabriel and Saliba are both out. Mosquera and Rice are doubts after coming off against Brentford. Havertz has suffered a setback and won't be back before Christmas, while Trossard has a muscle issue.

Predicted Lineup: Raya; Timber, Hincapie, Calafiori, Lewis-Skelly; Zubimendi, Rice; Saka, Eze, Martinelli; Gyokeres.

• Aston Villa have won six consecutive games across all competitions.
• Arsenal are unbeaten in 18 matches in all competitions since losing to Liverpool in August.
• Aston Villa have won eight straight home games, including five in the Premier League.
• Emery has lost just two of nine games against Arsenal since being sacked in 2019.
• Arsenal have conceded just seven goals in 14 league matches, the best defensive record in the division.
   

Despite Arsenal being heavy favourites on betting apps, this is a tough one to call.

Arsenal's defensive injuries are a real issue. Without Saliba, Gabriel, and potentially Mosquera, they're patching together a back line for a game against one of the most in-form attacks in the country. For Villa, Watkins looked sharp against Brighton, Morgan Rogers has been excellent, and Malen adds another dimension.

But Arsenal have been grinding out results all season, and they've got attacking options that can hurt anyone. Viktor Gyokeres should start up front, and with Saka, Eze and Martinelli behind him, they'll create chances.

I think this ends level. Villa's home form is too good to ignore, but Arsenal's overall quality and defensive discipline should be enough to avoid defeat. As far as football betting tips, the draw at $3.60 looks tempting.

Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals @ $3.00

Villa have conceded in four of their last five home games, while Arsenal have failed to keep a clean sheet in five straight matches across all competitions. Heading into this match, neither defence is at full strength.

At the other end, Villa are averaging nearly three goals per game during their four-match winning streak. Arsenal, meanwhile, have scored in every single one of their 18 unbeaten games. The quality in attack on both sides makes goals feel inevitable.

Still, four of the last five meetings between these two at Villa Park have produced under 2.5 goals, which gives me pause. But current form suggests this will be more open. Both sides need the points, both will attack, and both have leaky defences right now.

$3.00 for BTTS and over 2.5 goals feels like solid value at Bet and Play.