Premier League: Aston Villa vs Brentford – Betting Tips, Odds & Prediction

Villa Park is the place to be this Sunday morning NZDT. Villa are sitting pretty in third and just put Newcastle to the sword, but Brentford are a bogey team for them this season. 

Keith Andrews has the Bees playing some clinical stuff. Even though they’re coming off a couple of losses, they’ve already done the double over Villa this term. I’m expecting a real battle of wits here. Can Emery’s boys handle the counter attacking threat, or will Igor Thiago silence the Holte End again? 

I’ve gone through the numbers to give you the lowdown, including a $4.10 bet I’ve found on betting sites in NZ for those looking for a bit of value.

Aston Villa

Villa are playing some of the best football I’ve seen from them in years and sit only four points off the top. 

Morgan Rogers is arguably the most dangerous player in the league right now with 12 goal involvements. They love to control the ball and hit teams with through balls. However, they’ve got a massive hole in midfield with Tielemans, McGinn, and Kamara all out. It means Onana and young Bogarde have to step up and run the show.

That’s not their only worry. Losing Tielemans for 10 weeks is a massive kick in the guts for Emery, especially since he’s been the one pulling the strings lately. I reckon they’ll look a bit thin in the middle of the park until Douglas Luiz gets his loan sorted. 

They’ve got to rely on Rogers and Watkins to keep the scoreboard ticking while the backline tries to hold it together. It’s a huge test of their squad depth if they want to stay in that Champions League spot.

Team News: Youri Tielemans is out with an ankle injury. John McGinn and Ross Barkley are also out.

Predicted Lineup: Martinez; Cash, Mings, Lindelof, Digne; Sancho, Bogarde, Onana, Buendia; Rogers, Watkins.

Brentford

Brentford are in a bit of a slump with back to back losses, but don’t let that fool you. They’re eighth for a reason. Their game plan is simple: sit deep, invite you to shoot from distance, and then murder you on the break. 

Igor Thiago is a beast. He’s got 16 goals already and will be licking his lips at the prospect of facing a Villa high line. If they can weather the early storm, they’re always a threat. Wissa and Schade also provide lightning pace on the wings that’ll keep Villa’s fullbacks honest. 

If Ajer and Damsgaard pass their fitness tests, I can see them being incredibly hard to break down at the back. They’ve already beaten Villa twice this season, so they won’t be scared of the atmosphere.

Team News: Kristoffer Ajer and Fabio Carvalho are out. 

Predicted Lineup: Kelleher; Roerslev, Collins, Pinnock, Henry; Jensen, Janelt, Yarmolyuk, Schade; Thiago, Wissa.

• Villa have a staggering record of scoring from outside the box with 13 goals and counting this season.
• Brentford have won both previous meetings against Villa this campaign.
• Morgan Rogers has seven goals from an expected goals of less than four.
• Brentford have been awarded seven penalties this season, the second highest in Europe’s top five leagues.

I’m calling it now: this is going to be a tactical war. I expect Villa’s midfield injuries are going to make them look a bit disjointed, and that’s exactly where Brentford will pounce. 

Usually, I’d back Villa at home where they’ve been a fortress, but the Bees have their number. Brentford actually encourage teams to take long shots. About 37% of the shots they face are from distance, and while Rogers and Buendia are great at those, it’s a high risk strategy.

I reckon we’ll see Villa dominate the ball, but they’ll struggle to get past Pinnock and Collins. On the flip side, Thiago is just too good in the air and on the shoulder of the last man. I don't think Villa's defence, without the protection of Kamara, can keep him quiet for 90 minutes. 

I’m picking a high energy 2-2 draw. If you’re looking at football betting markets, the draw looks like the best value on the board.

Draw and Both Teams to Score @ $4.10

I’m leaning into the score draw here. Both teams have too much firepower to go scoreless, but they’ve both been a bit leaky at the back lately. Given the history this season, I can’t see Villa running away with it. Most betting apps have this priced around $4.10, which is a total steal for a match that’s likely to be this tight.