Premier League: Aston Villa vs Chelsea - Betting Tips, Odds & Prediction

Aston Villa host Chelsea at Villa Park on Thursday morning New Zealand time in a Premier League clash that could well define the Champions League race for both clubs.

Six points separate these two, with Villa sitting fourth on 51 points and Chelsea down in sixth on 45. But surprisingly, neither are in good form at the moment. Villa have won just once in five league games, while Chelsea haven’t managed a win in three.

In this Aston Villa vs Chelsea preview, I get into the form, injuries, and key player battles that should shape this fixture. I’ve also got my eye on a goals-related play paying $3.75 on NZ betting sites that looks to be brilliant value given the history between these two at Villa Park.

Aston Villa

To say Villa’s season has hit a rough patch is an understatement. They’ll be hoping that their 2-0 defeat at the hands of bottom-placed Wolves was rock bottom.

Big picture, their home record is still decent, with nine wins from 14 this season. But things have been trending down recently, with just one win from their last four at Villa Park. The goals have dried up too, with Villa managing averaging just one per game in those five fixtures.

Their midfield injury list is the root of the problem. Tielemans, McGinn, and Kamara are all sidelined. While Douglas Luiz has come back on loan from Nottingham Forest, they still have a lot of holes. As a result, they lean heavily on their strikers to carry a lot of the attacking weight, with Ollie Watkins and Morgan Rogers key in this clash.

Villa did win 2-1 the last time these two sides faced at Stamford Bridge in December, with Watkins scoring twice off the bench.

Team News: Tielemans, McGinn, Kamara, and Harvey Elliott are all out. Luiz is available after his loan return.

Predicted Lineup: Martinez; Cash, Konsa, Pau Torres, Digne; Onana, Luiz; Sancho, Rogers, Buendia; Watkins.

Chelsea

On top of their own form issues, Chelsea are dealing with an out-and-out discipline crisis now.

Neto’s red card against Arsenal on Sunday was their 10th across all competitions this season, and seventh in the league alone. They’ve got some good stuff going on - Joao Pedro and Enzo Fernandez are both playing great - but their discipline keeps hurting them.

With Neto now suspended, and Estevao and Gittens both injured, their wide attacking options are extremely thin. There are a few silver linings though, as Cole Palmer and Fofana should both be back on deck. 

Team News: Neto is suspended. Estevao, Gittens, and Colwill are all out. Cucurella is a doubt. Fofana returns.

Predicted Lineup: Sanchez; James, Fofana, Chalobah, Gusto; Santos, Caicedo; Palmer, Fernandez, Garnacho; Joao Pedro.

• Over 2.5 goals has landed in eight of the last nine Villa home matches against Chelsea in all competitions.
• Chelsea are winless in three consecutive PL matches.
• Villa won the reverse fixture 2-1 at Stamford Bridge in December.
• Over 2.5 goals has hit in five of Chelsea’s last six league games.
• Both teams have scored in five of Chelsea’s last six away matches.

Both sides are out of form, but I lean towards Villa at home.

Chelsea’s squad depth is being properly tested. Neto, Estevao, and Gittens are all unavailable from the wide positions. Palmer can’t carry the load alone, and I think Villa’s defensive shape will limit Chelsea’s options on the flanks.

Villa’s midfield is weakened too, but Watkins and Rogers typically raise their level at Villa Park. They’ll look to hit Chelsea on the break, with full-backs Cash and Digne pushing forward to overload the wide areas. Chelsea have lost eight of their last 10 midweek away fixtures, and with a severely stretched squad, that isn’t a good sign.

I’m tipping Villa 2-1. Chelsea will score because they almost always do, but I don’t think they’ve got enough without their wingers to take anything from this one.

Aston Villa Win and Both Teams to Score @ $3.75

The head-to-head record at Villa Park screams goals: eight of the last nine meetings here have produced over 2.5. Chelsea concede wherever they go, but Pedro and Palmer ensure they won’t be blanked either.

At the other end, Watkins loves a big occasion, and Rogers has been involved in 13 league goals this campaign. Villa should have enough to win this at home, but Chelsea’s attacking quality means it won’t be a shutout.

$3.75 for a Villa win with BTTS suits the profile of this match perfectly. If you’re planning to join some of the sign up bonus sites that we recommend here at BettingTop10 NZ, this is the kind of bet to hit your wagering requirement with.