Premier League: Aston Villa vs Leeds - Betting Tips, Odds & Prediction

Aston Villa host Leeds at Villa Park on Sunday morning NZT in what could well be a critical Premier League fixture. 

Villa are still in the title race, while Leeds are fighting at the opposite end of the table, scrambling to pull away from the relegation zone. It’s a mismatch on paper, but Leeds have shown enough fight lately to make this clash interesting.

I’ve analysed form, stats and key player battles in this Aston Villa vs Leeds preview. Below you’ll find my prediction, including a $3.50 bet I’m backing on NZ betting sites this weekend.

Aston Villa

Third on the Premier League table after 26 matches looks great for Villa, but dig a bit deeper and their form isn’t exactly convincing.

Aston Villa have won just one of their last four matches across all competitions, beating Brighton 1-0 thanks to a late own goal. In this span, they’ve lost to Brentford at home and gone down 3-1 to Newcastle in the FA Cup. 

As with many sides at this stage of the season, their squad stretched thin by injuries. Kamara is done for the season with a knee problem, Tielemans is out for roughly eight weeks with an ankle issue, and captain McGinn had knee surgery last month. Watkins has been nursing a hamstring complaint too, though he’s trained this week and should start.

Overall they’ve been strong at Villa Park with nine home wins, but three home defeats in 2026 alone isn’t a great trend. 

Team News: Kamara, Tielemans, McGinn and Garcia are all out. Cash is in doubt with a knee issue. Watkins is expected to feature after returning to full training.

Predicted Lineup: Martinez; Bogarde, Konsa, Torres, Maatsen; Onana, Luiz; Sancho, Buendia, Rogers; Watkins.

Leeds

A promoted side fighting relegation is the obvious narrative for Leeds’ season, but looking closer at their results, they’ve actually impressed at times.

They thumped Forest 3-1 earlier this month before coming from 2-0 down to draw 2-2 against Chelsea. Calvert-Lewin has 10 goals already and looks like he’s playing freely with Nmecha and Aaronson by his side.

The issue for Leeds is their away form: one win, five draws and seven losses, with 42 goals conceded. If you’re tracking markets on betting apps in NZ, you’ll see the bookies have Leeds as heavy underdogs, and this is why.

Team News: Okafor is a major doubt after pulling up with a hamstring problem in the FA Cup. Dan James has a back issue and Stach and Struijk both have hip flexor complaints. All four face late fitness tests.

Predicted Lineup: Perri; Justin, Bijol, Rodon; Bogle, Ampadu, Gruev, Aaronson, Gudmundsson; Nmecha, Calvert-Lewin.

• Villa have won four of the last five meetings between these sides across all competitions.
• Rogers scored twice as Villa won 2-1 at Elland Road in November’s reverse fixture.
• Leeds have won just once in 13 away Premier League matches this season.
• 62% of Leeds’ league games have featured over 2.5 goals.
• Villa have conceded in seven of their last 10 league outings.

Villa should win this, but I don’t think it’ll be comfortable for the home side.

My main reasoning is just how sparse their midfield is looking without Tielemans and McGinn. They’ve looked slower and more predictable in possession sans these two. Leeds, for all their away struggles, aren’t a side that sits deep and accepts a beating. They’ll press, they’ll commit bodies forward, and Calvert-Lewin will be a handful for the lesser-capable Konsa and Torres.

That said, I can’t see Villa losing this one. Rogers has been outstanding this season with eight goals, and Buendia can get by any defence. Leeds will get chances though, particularly if Villa’s full-back situation is only patched together with Bogarde at right-back again.

My call is a 2-1 Villa win. 

Aston Villa Win and Both Teams to Score @ $3.50

While the correct scoreline is a tempting market, I’m personally staying away from that unless any free bets come across my dashboard. Instead, a Villa win with BTTS feels like the better play, as it covers a few more permutations.

Villa have enough going forward to win at home, especially with Watkins, Rogers and Buendia all available. But they’ve been far too leaky at the back to keep a clean sheet, with seven goals conceded in their last 10 league matches.

Leeds, meanwhile, have scored in five of their last six league matches, in large part due to a clinical Calvert-Lewin. He’ll get chances here and I back him to take at least one of them. But one goal won’t be enough for Leeds to get a result. Villa’s depth will eventually tell.

At $3.50 with Bet and Play, a Villa win with goals at both ends is the sweet spot for me.