FA Cup: Aston Villa vs Newcastle United – Betting Tips, Odds & Prediction

Aston Villa host Newcastle United this Sunday for a massive FA Cup fourth-round tie at the historic Villa Park.

Football fans, brace yourselves for what I’m picking will be the match of the round. We’ve got Villa, who’ve been absolute monsters at home lately, taking on a Newcastle side that finally looks like they’ve found their mojo after a gutsy win in London. Cup football always brings a bit of extra spice, and with both these sides eyeing a trophy to save their season, I’m expecting plenty of fireworks.

I’ve crunched the numbers and kept a close eye on the latest injury updates to find the best value from this FA Cup clash. There’s also a particular bet returning $3.05 on 20Bet that I’ve got my eye on for this weekend, which I breakdown below.

Aston Villa

Heading into this fixture, Villa have a few holes in the middle of the park. 

The likes of McGinn and Tielemans are still out, which will impact their ability to control the tempo of the game. They’ll likely lean on Watkins to lead the line again, and I’m curious to see if Bailey gets the nod over Sancho this time. Sancho’s been decent, but Bailey’s pace might be what they need to stretch a Newcastle backline that’s looking settled. 

Big picture, Villa have been playing their best football under the lights at home. But I’m not so sure Villa Park is still the fortress it was a few months back. Recent home losses against Brentford and Everton have definitely taken the shine off. 

However, Watkins usually turns it on against Newcastle - he netted in that 2-0 win on Tyneside last month and always seems to find space against their back four. I reckon they’ll look to hurt them on set pieces too, especially with the height they’ve got. If they can stay disciplined and not let the game unravel, they should be able to get this one done.

Team News: John McGinn and Youri Tielemans remain sidelined. Ezri Konsa is fit to start, while Leon Bailey and Jadon Sancho are battling for the right-wing spot.

Predicted Lineup: Martinez; Cash, Konsa, Torres, Maatsen; Onana, Douglas Luiz, Rogers, Buendia, Bailey, Watkins.

Newcastle United

Newcastle are coming into this match with their tails up after silencing their critics against Spurs.

The big news is Sven Botman is well and truly back. He didn’t just return; he’s already back on the scoresheet and looking like he never left. Having him next to Thiaw gives them a much sturdier look at the back. He did pick up a minor knee knock, but I’m banking on him being fully fit and in the lineup.

Joelinton is still a big miss in the midfield, and with Bruno being a bit of a doubt after the Spurs game, they might be slightly light. Still, with Gordon and Isak in form, they can hurt anyone. I’ve seen some decent prices on betting sites in NZ for the visitors to cause an upset.

Team News: Joelinton and Tino Livramento are out, while Bruno Guimaraes and Botman face late fitness tests.

Predicted Lineup: Pope; Trippier, Thiaw, Botman, Burn; Tonali, Willock, Ramsey; Gordon, Isak, Barnes.

• Aston Villa have turned Villa Park into a fortress, losing just three times this season.
• Newcastle showed they can keep it tight on the road with a 0-0 at Wolves recently.
• The last meeting between these two was a comfortable 2-0 win for Villa in the league.
• Both teams have found the net in four of their last six head-to-head cup meetings.

I’m leaning towards a Villa win, but I don’t think it’ll be a walk in the park by any means.

Newcastle have found a bit of defensive steel with Botman back, but Villa’s home record is just too hard to ignore. They play with so much confidence in front of their own fans. That said, Newcastle’s counter-attack is lethal, and I’d be shocked if they didn’t get on the scoresheet at least once.

I expect this to be a high-intensity battle with Villa’s extra bit of quality in the final third eventually getting them the W. I’m picking a 2-1 result for the home side.

Aston Villa to Win and Both Teams to Score @ $3.05

Villa are brilliant at home but they aren’t exactly known for keeping clean sheets against the big boys. Newcastle have the tools to score, especially on the break, but I reckon Villa will just outmuscle them over the 90 minutes. It’s a solid $3.05 at Sportaza, for what looks like the most likely outcome.