Champions League: Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona - Betting Tips, Odds & Prediction

Atletico Madrid and Barcelona meet at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano on Wednesday morning New Zealand time for the second leg of their Champions League quarter-final.

Atletico have a 2-0 lead from the first leg at Camp Nou, where Julian Alvarez’s stunning free kick and Alexander Sorloth’s finish gave Simeone’s side a huge advantage after Pau Cubarsi’s red card turned the match before half-time. 

In this Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona preview, I go through form, team news and what Barca need to do to turn this around. I’ve also got a play in the goals market at odds above $3.00 on football betting tips pages this week.

Atletico Madrid

I think the 2-0 scoreline from the first leg flatters Atletico slightly. Barcelona dominated before Cubarsi’s dismissal, and Atletico created very little from open play across the 90 minutes. Alvarez’s free kick was world-class, sure, but it came from a dead ball after an extremely fortunate chain of events.

That said, Simeone won’t care. He’s got the result he wanted and a record at the Metropolitano that nobody can argue with - Atletico have never lost a home knockout tie at this stadium. They knocked Barca out at this stage in 2014 and 2016 too, winning the second leg at home on both occasions.

Their La Liga form is another story. Simeone rested virtually the entire first team at Sevilla on Saturday and lost 2-1. Before the first leg, Atletico had lost four of five across all competitions. Fourth in La Liga is comfortable enough, but their season hinges on this Champions League run and the Copa del Rey final against Real Sociedad.

Team News: Hancko and Barrios are out. Pubill is suspended. Gimenez and Oblak are both doubts. Cardoso is also fighting to be fit.

Predicted Lineup: Musso; Molina, Le Normand, Lenglet, Ruggeri; Giuliano Simeone, Llorente, Koke, Lookman; Griezmann, Alvarez.

Barcelona

Barca need three goals without reply to go through, or two to force extra time.

Hansi Flick’s side demolished Espanyol 4-1 on Saturday to go nine points clear at the top of La Liga. Ferran Torres scored twice and Lamine Yamal added another before Marcus Rashford wrapped up a comfortable afternoon late on. Frenkie de Jong came off the bench and looked sharp after being out since late February. He gives Barca a different dimension in midfield, and I’d expect him to start here.

Barca have scored 84 goals in 31 La Liga matches this season. I don’t care how good Simeone is at setting up defensively - that attack can score three against anyone on the right night. Eight of the last 10 meetings between these two have finished with more than 2.5 goals. Barca’s problem won’t be creating chances. It’ll be the other end, where they haven’t kept a clean sheet in the Champions League all season.

Without Cubarsi (suspended) and Raphinha (hamstring), Flick has to reshuffle. Araujo and Eric Garcia should pair up at centre-back, with Kounde at right-back.

Team News: Cubarsi suspended. Raphinha out until May. Christensen is a long-term absentee. Bernal is a doubt. De Jong is fit.

Predicted Lineup: Joan Garcia; Kounde, Araujo, Eric Garcia, Balde; De Jong, Pedri; Yamal, Fermin, Rashford; Lewandowski.

• Eight of the last 10 meetings between these sides have produced over 2.5 goals.
• Atletico have never lost a home knockout tie at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano.
• Barcelona haven’t kept a clean sheet in 11 Champions League matches this season.
• Atletico eliminated Barca at the quarter-final stage in 2014 and 2016, winning both second legs at home.
• Julian Alvarez has nine Champions League goals this season.

I’m torn on this one, honestly. Barcelona’s attack is good enough to score three at the Metropolitano. But their defence without Cubarsi worries me, and Atletico will set up to frustrate and counter through Alvarez and Lookman.

I think Barca win on the night but not the tie. Flick’s side will come out with intensity, and I’d expect Yamal and Rashford to cause problems on the flanks. Atletico’s centre-back situation - Lenglet alongside Le Normand without Hancko or Pubill - is an opening Barca should try to exploit. But Atletico should score at least once on the break, and that’s probably enough to see them through on aggregate.

I’m going Barcelona 2-1 on the night, Atletico through 3-2 on aggregate. If you’ve been browsing betting apps NZ ahead of this one, the BTTS market is the best way in.

Barcelona to Win and Both Teams to Score @ $3.20

Eight of the last 10 between these two have gone over 2.5 goals, and both teams have scored in the majority of those. Barca have to chase the game from the first minute, which will leave gaps at the back for Atletico’s counter. Alvarez alone has nine Champions League goals this campaign.

Barcelona haven’t kept a Champions League clean sheet all term. With Lenglet likely starting for Atletico in place of Hancko, Lewandowski and Yamal should fancy their chances from set-pieces alone. Barca to win with both teams scoring at $3.20 combines two outcomes that both look probable on their own.

For those using legal betting sites to get involved, I’m happy to back it.