Spanish Supercopa: Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid – Betting Tips, Odds & Prediction

Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid are taking their local rivalry to Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, this Friday morning New Zealand time for a massive Supercopa semi-final.

These two are basically the best in Spain right now, so having them face off on neutral ground is going to be high-pressure stuff. Atletico Madrid have been a proper headache for their city rivals lately, but Real Madrid are looking lethal after their recent goal fest against Real Betis. I’m keen to see if the underdogs can keep their streak alive or if Real Madrid will just power through.

I’ve had a proper look at the form and the stats to see where the value is hiding heading into this fixture. This Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid preview covers everything from the lineups to my read on the camp vibes, and I’ve even spotted a play paying $4.30 for those keen to get stuck into some football betting.

Atletico Madrid

I’m really liking what I’m seeing from Atletico Madrid lately, who are unbeaten in their last five matches. They seem to have found a nice balance between the gritty defence they’re famous for, as well as out-and-out clinical finishing. Atletico won’t be scared one bit coming into this one, especially since they put five goals on Real Madrid earlier in the season.

I expect they’ll look to frustrate Real and hit them on the counter with Julian Alvarez’s pace. Alexander Sorloth is also a handful for any defender. If they can keep their heads and not get sucked into drama, they’re a massive chance here. NZ bookies have them as underdogs but only just, and many are seeing what I see here: value.

Team News: Clement Lenglet is a major doubt with a knee injury.

Predicted Lineup: Oblak; Llorente, Pubill, Hancko, Ruggeri; Simeone, Barrios, Koke, Baena; Sorloth, Alvarez.

Real Madrid

Real Madrid are playing ridiculously well under Xabi Alonso. Their 5-1 thumping of Real Betis on Monday showed just how dangerous they are when they’re in the mood. They’re capable of scoring goals from almost anywhere, and even with a few injuries at the back, they just seem to outscore everyone.

The big talking point here is Kylian Mbappe, who has just been ruled out of the tournament. How much will Real’s chances be dampened by his absence? Not too much, I think, as even without him, Gonzalo Garcia and Vinicius Junior are frightening.
 
That said, Real Madrid have got a weird record in the Supercopa lately where they struggle to finish Atletico Madrid off in 90 minutes. I’ve been checking the latest odds on betting apps in NZ and the markets are tight for a reason—Real Madrid are the class side, but they’ve got a psychological hurdle to jump here.

Team News: Mbappe is out. Trent Alexander-Arnold and Eder Militao are sidelined as well.

Predicted Lineup: Courtois; Asencio, Rudiger, Carreras; Valverde, Camavinga, Tchouameni, Bellingham; Rodrygo, Garcia, Vinicius Junior.

• Atletico Madrid are unbeaten in their last four competitive games against Real Madrid.
• Real Madrid have scored three or more goals in five of their last seven wins.
• Each of the last five Madrid derbies has seen both teams score.
• Real Madrid have reached the final in all five previous editions of this tournament held in Saudi Arabia.

Regardless of whether you’re betting or not, this game is going to be fascinating. Atletico Madrid have the confidence from their recent head-to-head record, and should be well and truly up for this one. They’ve got the tactical discipline to stifle Real Madrid’s if they get their press right.

But Real Madrid are just so resilient. They find ways to stay in games even when they aren’t at their best. I reckon both teams will have periods of dominance, but neither is going to be able to fully finish the other one off.

I’m calling a 2-2 draw for the full-time result. It feels like one of those games that’s destined for extra time. It’ll be end-to-end stuff, and I don’t see either defence being able to keep a clean sheet with the amount of attacking talent each has.

Draw and Both Teams to Score @ $4.30

A score draw is where the value lies in my eyes. The stats don’t lie: these two usually find the net against each other, and both are in excellent attacking form right now. Real Madrid have a habit of taking these cup games deep, while Atletico Madrid are the masters of hanging in there.

Real Madrid haven’t actually beaten their rivals in regular time in the Supercopa recently, which just gives me more reason to believe this will go the distance. Getting a price like this at Bet and Play for both teams to cancel each other out while getting on the scoreboard is a steal.