UEFA Champions League: Bayer Leverkusen vs Arsenal - Betting Tips, Odds & Prediction

Struggling German team Bayer Leverkusen take on English leaders Arsenal in the UEFA Champions League Round of 16 first leg on Thursday morning NZT at the BayArena, in what promises to be an intriguing clash.

Arsenal topped the league phase with a perfect eight wins from eight. Leverkusen, on the other hand, scraped through in 16th and needed a playoff to get here. The gap in quality looks enormous on paper, but knockout football does odd things to teams. 

Read on for my full Bayer Leverkusen vs Arsenal preview below, including an over 2.5 goals play at a decent price for anyone keen to get involved on NZ betting sites ahead of kick-off.

Bayer Leverkusen

This is a very different Leverkusen to the side that won the Bundesliga title two seasons ago. Florian Wirtz left for Liverpool, Piero Hincapie moved to Arsenal, and Xabi Alonso departed for Real Madrid. They’re currently sixth in the Bundesliga with 13 wins, five draws and seven losses from 25 games.

Their 3-3 collapse at Freiburg on Saturday summed things up. Leading 3-2 in the second half, they conceded a late goal and are now one win from their last five. Alejandro Grimaldo has been their most creative threat with 12 goals across all competitions, while Patrik Schick leads the scoring charts with 13. 

Defensively, though, they’ve conceded in seven of their last 10 Bundesliga matches and their back line is in pieces with injuries.

Team News: Mark Flekken, Arthur, Lucas Vazquez and Loic Bade are all out. Ibrahim Maza and Malik Tillman are doubts. Janis Blaswich starts in goal.

Predicted Lineup: Blaswich; Tapsoba, Andrich, Quansah; Tape, Garcia, Fernandez, Grimaldo; Poku, Maza; Kofane.

Arsenal

Arsenal’s top-level numbers are pretty crazy: Four wins from five, a seven-point lead at the top of the Premier League, the only team with a 100% record in the Champions League league phase (winning all eight matches, scoring 23 and conceding just four). 

But what I liked about their two most recent Premier League outings - a 2-1 win over Chelsea and a 1-0 grind vs Brighton - was how different those performances were. Arsenal can batter you or suffocate you. 

They rotated heavily for yesterday’s Mansfield FA Cup tie, resting key players specifically with this fixture in mind. That kind of squad management tells you where their priorities lie.

Team News: Declan Rice, Martin Zubimendi, Gabriel and David Raya are all expected to return. Martin Odegaard (knee) and Mikel Merino (foot) are out. William Saliba is a late fitness call with an ankle issue picked up against Chelsea.

Predicted Lineup: Raya; White, Saliba, Gabriel, Hincapie; Rice, Zubimendi; Saka, Havertz, Martinelli; Gyokeres.

• Leverkusen have won only one of their last five matches across all competitions.
• In 21 of Leverkusen’s last 24 home matches, over 1.5 goals have been scored.
• Arsenal have won four of their last five away fixtures in Europe.
• Leverkusen conceded in seven of their last 10 Bundesliga matches.

Leverkusen at home tend to throw bodies forward. Grimaldo loves to push up from left wing-back, and Christian Kofane is direct and physical. They’ll create something. I don’t think they’ll roll over.

But then you look at what happens when Arsenal break. Saka, Gyokeres and Gabriel Martinelli in transition against a makeshift back line missing Arthur, Vazquez and Bade is a nightmare scenario. Arsenal are better in almost every measurable area. 

I reckon Arsenal win, but not without conceding. Something like 1-2 or 1-3. You can find the latest markets on betting apps NZ to compare prices across different scoreline options.

Arsenal Win and Over 2.5 Goals @ $2.20

Arsenal have scored two or more in six of their eight Champions League matches this season. Their attack is stacked, and Leverkusen’s defence has been leaking all month.

Leverkusen have scored in eight of their last 10 UCL matches and their home record shows goals are almost guaranteed. They conceded three at Freiburg on Saturday and barely held on against Mainz the week before. With Arthur, Bade and Vazquez all missing from the back line, their defensive cover is thin.

Combine that with Arsenal’s motivation to grab an away lead and take command of this tie, and I struggle to see a low-scoring affair. At $2.20 with Betandplay, Arsenal win and over 2.5 goals is a great bet, and there are betting promotions across most platforms if you’re looking to get involved.