UEFA Champions League: Benfica vs Real Madrid - Betting Tips, Odds & Prediction

Benfica host Real Madrid at the Estadio da Luz in Lisbon on Wednesday morning New Zealand time in the first leg of their UEFA Champions League playoff, with a spot in the last 16 on the line.

These two sides played a thriller here just three weeks ago when Benfica stunned Real Madrid 4-2. That night ended with goalkeeper Trubin heading in a 98th-minute goal to seal qualification. Now they go again, and I can’t see this being a quiet one either.

I’ve dug through form, team news and stats to put together this Benfica vs Real Madrid preview. If you’re looking to have a bet on football this week the below is essential reading, and I’ve also got a solid $1.95 play at the bottom for those who are on the fence.

Benfica

Finishing 24th in the league phase looks rough on paper, but Benfica are a good team.

Their 4-2 victory three weeks ago was no fluke. Schjelderup bagged a brace, Pavlidis converted from the spot, and the atmosphere inside the Estadio da Luz was insane. Domestically, they haven’t lost a league match all season - an unbeaten run stretching 36 games. Pavlidis is in great form with six goals in his last six appearances across all competitions, and he’ll be licking his lips at the prospect of facing a weakened Real Madrid backline this week.

Home support will be massive here. Benfica will know they’ve got a real shot in this tie if they can grab a first-leg advantage.

Team News: Alexander Bah (knee), Dodi Lukebakio (ankle), Richard Rios (shoulder) and Joao Veloso (shoulder) are all out. Amar Dedic is a doubt.

Predicted Lineup: Trubin; Araujo, Otamendi, Antonio Silva, Dahl; Aursnes, Barrenechea; Prestianni, Sudakov, Schjelderup; Pavlidis.

Real Madrid

Four wins in five La Liga games, top of the table with 60 points, and a 4-1 hammering of Real Sociedad on Saturday. In Spain, Real Madrid are as good as it gets.

But Europe has been a different story for them. They finished ninth in the league phase after their loss to Benfica, and their squad is stretched thin for this trip. Four key players are out: Bellingham and Militao with injuries, Rodrygo and Asencio with suspensions. 

One positive is that Mbappe has been confirmed fit to start despite nursing some knee discomfort. He scored twice in their last meeting and has 38 goals this season across all competitions. Alexander-Arnold made his comeback at the weekend too and looked sharp, delivering an assist within five minutes of kickoff. If you’re browsing NZ betting sites for midweek markets, keep an eye on Mbappe’s goalscorer odds.

Team News: Mbappe is fit. Bellingham (hamstring), Militao (hamstring) and Mendy (calf) are out. Rodrygo and Asencio are suspended. Alexander-Arnold and Rudiger have returned.

Predicted Lineup: Courtois; Alexander-Arnold, Huijsen, Rudiger, Carreras; Camavinga, Tchouameni; Guler, Valverde, Vinicius; Mbappe.

• Benfica beat Real Madrid 4-2 at the Estadio da Luz just three weeks ago, with six goals scored.
• Real Madrid have found the net in six consecutive Champions League matches.
• Both teams scored in four of Benfica’s last five European fixtures.
• Real Madrid are without five first-team players through injury and suspension for this match.
• Pavlidis has scored six goals in his last six appearances across all competitions.

This fixture has goals written all over it, and I’d be genuinely surprised if both sides don’t score.

Real Madrid’s defence is weakened by suspensions and injuries. Huijsen and Rudiger will need to be at their best against Pavlidis and Schjelderup, who tore them apart last month. The Estadio da Luz crowd will be fizzing, which can rattle visiting defenders.

Going forward, though, Real Madrid are stacked. Mbappe and Vinicius on the counter are about as dangerous as an attack gets. Benfica leaked 12 goals across the league phase, so they aren’t exactly bulletproof at the back. If they push forward to grab the advantage, the space in behind will be there.

I think Real Madrid’s attacking firepower makes up for all their absences. Benfica will make things uncomfortable, but the quality of Mbappe and Vinicius should shine through. A tight 2-1 away win is my prediction.

Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5 Goals @ $1.95

I’m backing the logical market here.

There were six goals last time these two met at this ground. Since then, Real Madrid’s defence has been further depleted, and Benfica’s confidence on attack has only increased. At the other end, Mbappe and Vinicius are in devastating form.

Benfica won’t sit back at home in the first leg, which opens up the game for everyone. Real Madrid can’t afford a bad result either, so they’ll commit numbers forward. This should mean plenty of chances at both ends.

$1.95 for BTTS and over 2.5 goals is about as close to a banker as you’ll find this week. Check the latest betting promotions to see if you can boost these odds even further.