FIFA World Cup Qualifying: Bosnia and Herzegovina vs Italy - Betting Tips, Odds & Prediction

Bosnia and Herzegovina host Italy at Zenica’s Bilino Polje Stadium on Wednesday morning NZT in the FIFA World Cup Qualifying European playoff final. With the winner booking a spot at this summer’s tournament, and neither side having been to a World Cup since 2014, the stakes are high. 

In this Bosnia and Herzegovina vs Italy preview, I look at form, team news and the tactical matchup. There’s a low-scoring angle I like in the goals market, with a sharp price on NZ betting sites.

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Bosnia are desperate to make another World Cup. The atmosphere inside Bilino Polje will reflect that - this stadium was notorious for being “cursed” for visiting sides through the early 2000s. To say the sold-out crowd in Zenica is going to make things uncomfortable for Italy is an understatement.

Getting past Wales in the semi-final wasn’t easy. They fell behind and needed Edin Dzeko’s goal in the 86th minute to force extra time, before winning 4-2 on penalties. Bosnia had five shots on target across the match, and Ermedin Demirovic went close with a header that Karl Darlow somehow clawed away. But they still relied on one moment of brilliance to survive.

Dzeko is 40. He’s been playing for Schalke in the second-tier Bundesliga and still doing the business (became the oldest scorer in the league’s history this year). His time in Serie A with Roma and Inter means he knows exactly how Italy’s centre-backs operate too. Demirovic provides support up front, and Esmir Bajraktarevic on the right has been one of their brighter options.

Team News: Dennis Hadzikadunic withdrew with injury during the camp. The rest of the squad is fit. Kerim Alajbegovic - who converted the winning penalty against Wales - could push for a start.

Predicted Lineup: Vasilj; Dedic, Katic, Muharemovic, Kolasinac; Bajraktarevic, Tahirovic, Sunjic, Memic; Demirovic, Dzeko.

Italy

This is Italy’s third consecutive World Cup qualifying cycle that they’ve made the playoffs. Lost to Sweden in 2018, North Macedonia in 2022. The pressure on this squad to qualify here is immense.

Their semi-final was nervy, with a goalless first half against Northern Ireland before Sandro Tonali and Moise Kean scored to seal a 2-0 win. Kean has now scored in five consecutive internationals - the first Italian to do that since Toto Schillaci at the 1990 World Cup.

I’m curious whether Gennaro Gattuso gives 20-year-old Pio Esposito the start over Mateo Retegui. Esposito changed the game off the bench against Northern Ireland with his hold-up play and physical presence. Retegui looked rusty - he’s in the Saudi Pro League now, which doesn’t help sharpness at this level.

Alessandro Bastoni and Riccardo Calafiori are both fit despite minor knocks. With Gianluigi Donnarumma behind them, this back line is Italy’s strongest asset.

Team News: Federico Chiesa was sent home before the semi-final. Giovanni Di Lorenzo and Gianluca Scamacca are also unavailable. Nicolo Cambiaghi has been called up as a replacement.

Predicted Lineup: Donnarumma; Mancini, Bastoni, Calafiori; Politano, Barella, Locatelli, Tonali, Dimarco; Kean, Retegui.

• Italy have won four and drawn one of their six previous meetings with Bosnia and Herzegovina, losing only in the sides’ first ever game (a friendly in 1996).
• Three of the last four matches in this head-to-head have finished with under 2.5 goals.
• Italy kept clean sheets in their two most recent qualifiers - 2-0 wins over Northern Ireland and Moldova.
• Bosnia and Herzegovina’s last two competitive matches both ended 1-1 in normal time (vs Austria, vs Wales).
• Italy scored 23 goals across nine qualifying matches (2.55 per game). Bosnia scored 18 from nine (2.0 per game).

I’m backing Italy, but this should be tight. Bilino Polje will be hostile and it’s freezing cold in Zenica. Bosnia will make life uncomfortable. Dzeko against Bastoni in particular is a contest I’m looking forward to.

But at the end of the day, Italy’s midfield is way better. Nicolo Barella and Tonali controlling the tempo against Ivan Sunjic and Benjamin Tahirovic feels like a mismatch to me. And when Italy get into these kind of tense knockout situations, they’ve shown they can grind out results without being spectacular. It took 45 minutes to unlock Northern Ireland - I can see a similar pattern here.

Bosnia will sit deep and make it ugly, hoping Dzeko produces a moment. I just don’t think they can match Italy over 90 minutes. If you’re checking football betting tips ahead of this one, the under 2.5 goals market stands out given how tight the recent head-to-heads have been.

Italy to Win to Nil @ $3.00

Italy’s defence is the best thing about this team right now. Donnarumma and Bastoni are Champions League starters, protected by two of the best midfielders in European football. They kept clean sheets in both of their last two qualifiers, and three of the last four head-to-heads with Bosnia have gone under 2.5 goals.

Bosnia had five shots on target against Wales, but that was across 120 minutes and most of the threat came from set pieces rather than sustained pressure. Dzeko’s header was brilliant, sure, but open-play chances were scarce. Against a defence as organised as Italy’s, I expect even fewer opportunities.

At $3.00 on betting apps NZ, there’s value backing Italy to shut the hosts out.