Premier League: Brighton vs Aston Villa - Betting Tips, Odds & Prediction

Brighton host Aston Villa on Thursday morning New Zealand time in an intriguing Premier League clash at American Express Stadium. 

With the two sides sitting in fourth and fifth on the ladder, this is the kind of blockbuster that could shape the top of the table over the coming weeks. Will the home form of Brighton prevail? Or can Villa extend their dominant head-to-head over the men in blue and white?

We break down all the key details in this Brighton vs Aston Villa preview. From team news, through to stats, predicted lineups and a sharp betting tip, we dig into all you need to know ahead of this clash. We’ve also got the latest odds from NZ betting sites for those who are eager to get some skin in the game!

Brighton

Statistically, there are two ways to look at this match for Brighton.

On the one hand, they’re in searing form at home. Not only have they won three in a row at the American Express Stadium, but they haven’t lost in front of their fans since early April - that’s a 10-match unbeaten streak.

On the other hand, the last time they did lose at home, it was to Aston Villa. It was grim as well, with Villa thrashing them 3-0. That points towards a wider trend as well: Villa has had their number in recent years, with Brighton picking up just one win in their last nine meetings, and Villa winning six of the last eight. Brighton have also beaten Villa at home just once since 1980.

With this in mind, Brighton come into Thursday morning’s clash well positioned. They’re fifth in the table and high on confidence. If ever there was a time for them to turn the tables on Aston Villa, this week is it - and the odds on betting apps reflect this.

Team News: Brighton will be without Kaoru Mitoma, Solly March, Adam Webster, and James Milner, while Georginio Rutter is in doubt after a recent head knock too.

Predicted Lineup: Verbruggen; Kadioglu, Van Hecke, Dunk, De Cuyper; Baleba, Ayari; Minteh, Hinshelwood, Gomez; Welbeck.

Aston Villa

If Brighton are in good form, then Aston Villa are on another planet. 

The visitors have won five in a row across all comps, and seven of their last eight in the Premier League. The only mark on their record is a respectable one too: a loss against Liverpool at Anfield, hardly anything to hang their heads over. 

We’ve already touched on how Villa stack up statistically against Brighton (well!), but there is a trend we’d like to point out which sparks a little concern. Aston Villa are historically poor in December. Whether it’s a little too much mulled wine on the bus or just home sick vibes, Villa have lost their last four away games in the final month of the year.

Sure, their recent form instills confidence, but we’d advise putting the brakes on this optimism a little bit in the face of this historical trend.

Team News: Tyrone Mings is sidelined with a hamstring injury, while Ross Barkley is in doubt after coming off injured earlier in the week. However, Ollie Watkins could return after being rested at the weekend.

Predicted Lineup: Martinez; Cash, Konsa, Torres, Digne; Tielemans, Onana; McGinn, Rogers, Buendia; Watkins.

• Brighton have won only one of their last nine Premier League matches against Aston Villa.
• Brighton are unbeaten in their last 10 home Premier League matches, winning their last three.
• Aston Villa have lost their last four away Premier League games in December.
• Aston Villa have won six of their last eight encounters against Brighton.

If you’ve made it this far, then you’ll know what we’re all thinking: this is a tough one to call.

We’ve got two in-form teams, one that has looked unbeatable at home, the other that has had the upperhand in their head-to-head. There’s a suspicious December decline trend for Villa to keep an eye on as well.

We predict Villa will buck their Christmas blues and continue their strong form against Brighton. 

The visitors have conceded just twice in five games, and have looked very comfortable in their recent wins over Brighton. This is a side that’s organised, counters well, and doesn't need to dominate possession in order to win.

However, some weight does need to be given to Brighton’s current streak as well. Danny Welbeck has been looking excellent, and he’s got enough quality around him to cause Villa problems. 

With football betting sites pricing a draw at $3.35, we like this market considering how level these two sides are.

Over 2.5 goals @ $1.90  

That’s right - we’re tipping Villa to concede a few here for the first time in a while.

This bet is based off each team’s goal-scoring prowess, plus what we’ve seen in the head-to-head so far. Five of the last six meetings between these sides have produced three or more goals, including a 6-1 Villa win and a 2-2 draw in recent seasons. Brighton have landed over 2.5 goals in five straight home games and both teams have scored in nine of their last 10 at the Amex. Villa have been sharp in attack too, netting 11 goals in their last five matches.

Bottom line, with so much pointing toward goals, the over 2.5 goals line of $1.90 at Bet and Play is excellent value.