Premier League: Chelsea vs Manchester City - Betting Tips, Odds & Prediction

Chelsea and Manchester City meet at Stamford Bridge on Monday morning New Zealand time in a Premier League fixture that could shape the title race and the top-four fight in one go.

City are nine points behind Arsenal in second and can’t afford to drop anything. Chelsea, sixth on 48 points, have won just once in their last six league games and are six points off the Champions League places with seven to go.

In this Chelsea vs Manchester City preview, I’m looking at form, team news and where the goals come from. I’ve got an angle on the goals market that I like for odds above $3.00 on football betting sites.

Chelsea

I don’t know what to expect from Chelsea here. A 7-0 FA Cup win over Port Vale last weekend was exactly what Liam Rosenior needed, but League One opponents don’t tell you much.

Before that, it was ugly - a 3-0 hammering at Everton, a 1-0 home loss to Newcastle, and a 2-1 defeat at Arsenal. Their only Premier League win since February 10 was a 4-1 at Aston Villa on March 4.

Joao Pedro has 14 goals across all competitions this season and Cole Palmer has nine in the league, so the goal threat is there. But their defence has been porous late in matches, conceding six of 17 home goals in the final 15 minutes.

Without Enzo Fernandez - suspended by the club over public comments about his future - they lose creativity from midfield. I wouldn’t be surprised if Rosenior goes with a back three to try to contain City’s width.

Team News: James is a doubt (hamstring). Fernandez is suspended. Mudryk is banned. Colwill, Chalobah, Gittens, and Jorgensen are all out.

Predicted Lineup: Sanchez; Gusto, Fofana, Badiashile, Hato, Cucurella; Caicedo, Andrey Santos; Estevao, Palmer, Neto; Joao Pedro.

Manchester City

City thumped Liverpool 4-0 in the FA Cup quarter-final last Saturday. Erling Haaland scored a hat trick and Antoine Semenyo got the other. It was ruthless from the 39th minute onwards.

In the league, though, their last two results were draws - 1-1 with West Ham and 2-2 with Nottingham Forest. So it hasn’t all been smooth.

Haaland has 22 goals and seven assists in 29 league appearances this season. I don’t think Chelsea’s patched-up back line will cope with his movement. Rayan Cherki has been excellent in the playmaker role too, linking well with Semenyo on the right.

Their defensive picture is complicated. Josko Gvardiol is out long-term with a broken leg. Ruben Dias missed the Carabao Cup final with a hamstring injury and John Stones picked up a calf problem on England duty. If all three miss out, it’ll be Nathan Ake and Abdukodir Khusanov at centre-back again.

Team News: Gvardiol is a long-term absentee. Dias and Stones are both doubtful. No suspensions.

Predicted Lineup: Trafford; Nunes, Khusanov, Ake, O’Reilly; Rodri, Bernardo Silva; Semenyo, Cherki, Doku; Haaland.

• City are unbeaten in 12 against Chelsea across all competitions since the 2021 Champions League final.
• Chelsea have won four of their last 10 home league games this season.
• City haven’t lost at Stamford Bridge in the league since June 2020.
• Haaland has 22 Premier League goals from 29 appearances this season.
• Chelsea have conceded in nine of their last 10 matches across all competitions.

I’m going with City, but I don’t think this will be comfortable. Stamford Bridge is still a difficult ground to visit and Rosenior will set up to frustrate. Palmer and Joao Pedro have enough about them to cause problems on the break.

But City need this. Haaland is in the mood after that hat trick and Chelsea haven’t beaten City in any competition for nearly five years. I’m tipping a 2-1 or 3-1 away win. If you’re checking NZ betting apps this week, the goals market is where I’d start.

Manchester City to Win and Over 2.5 Goals @ $3.00

City have scored two or more in five of their last seven matches across all competitions. Chelsea have conceded in nine of their last 10. With City’s title ambitions on the line, I can’t see Guardiola setting up conservatively at Stamford Bridge.

Chelsea will have a go too - they need points for the top-four race and Palmer won’t sit deep for 90 minutes. That opens the game up. Haaland against a patched-up defence with no Chalobah and potentially no James is an obvious mismatch.

At $3.00 for a City win with three or more goals in the match, I’m happy to back it on the best new betting sites available in New Zealand.