Croatia vs Spain Prediction: Betting Tips & Odds

Three days after the worst result in their history, Croatia get the world champions.

Croatia and Spain meet at Stadion Poljud in Split on Wednesday morning New Zealand time, with kick-off at 7:45am in this UEFA Nations League A3 fixture. Spain won 4-1 in Seville on 29 September, and nothing that happened to Croatia in Rijeka since then suggests this one will be any kinder.

My Croatia vs Spain preview covers form and team news for both sides, and I’ve gone with a result-and-goals double paying just over $2.

That’s the pick for anyone after football betting tips with a bit of value this week.

Croatia

I really don’t know what Croatia have left after Rijeka.

England beat them 7-0 on 3 October, and it was 4-0 by half-time. Harry Kane and Bukayo Saka both scored twice, while Croatia managed one shot on target all night.

Luka Modric started that game and said afterwards it was the first time in 20 years with the national team he’d felt ashamed after a match. Slaven Bilic apologised to the fans and called it the biggest defeat of all time.

I’d be surprised to see Modric start in Split. Bilic said before the window that his captain wouldn’t play all four games, and the 41-year-old has featured in all three so far.

Their defence is the bigger problem for me. Spain were in front inside two minutes in Seville, and Dion Beljo’s header from an Ivan Perisic cross only levelled it for three minutes before Marc Pubill restored the lead.

Anyone browsing the best new betting sites for a big home price should think twice here.

Team News: Erlic and Juranovic withdrew from the squad injured. Stanisic missed Seville through injury.

Predicted Lineup: Livakovic; Smolcic, Sutalo, Vuskovic, Gvardiol; Kovacic, Petar Sucic; Marco Pasalic, Luka Sucic, Perisic; Beljo.

Spain

Spain haven’t lost in 41 matches, and they’ve barely needed their best XI lately.

Luis de la Fuente made sweeping changes for Czechia in Oviedo on 3 October and still won 3-1. Lamine Yamal scored early and Rodri swept in a second on 35 minutes, his first Spain goal since Euro 2024. Mikel Merino added a late third after Czechia went down to 10 men.

Yamal is the one I can’t get past. He’s got four goals in three Nations League games, two of them against Croatia in Seville.

I do have one small worry. De la Fuente admitted their level dropped after the break against Czechia, and he’s rotating hard. If he rings the changes again, Spain could look loose in spells.

Team News: Ferran Torres, Nico Williams, Grimaldo and Eric Garcia have all withdrawn injured. Fabian Ruiz left camp for the birth of his first child.

Predicted Lineup: Simon; Pubill, Cubarsi, Huijsen, Cucurella; Zubimendi, Pedri; Yamal, Fermin Lopez, Baena; Oyarzabal.

• Croatia haven’t beaten Spain since a 3-2 win in Zagreb in November 2018.
• Spain have won their last two meetings with Croatia by an aggregate score of 7-1.
• All three of Spain’s Nations League games have produced at least four goals.
• Croatia have conceded 12 goals in three Nations League games.
• Spain have scored first in all three Nations League games.

I’m backing Spain, and I fear it’ll get ugly for Croatia again.

My one hesitation is pride. Croatia will want to restore a bit of pride after Rijeka, and sides coming off a hiding like that usually throw everything at the first 20 minutes.

But throwing bodies forward against this Spain team is a gamble. Yamal and Alex Baena love space to run into, and Croatia have looked slow to recover their shape all window. If Spain score early again, I can see the floodgates opening.

I’m not ruling out a Croatia goal. Perisic set up their equaliser in Seville and Beljo gives them a target in the box. Spain have conceded in all three Nations League games so far too.

For me, it’s a case of how many Spain score. They’ve had at least three in every game of this campaign, even with a rotated side against Czechia.

If Croatia are still level at half-time, I’d be looking at the in-play goals line rather than the result.

I’ve got Spain winning 3-1.

Spain to Win and Over 2.5 Goals @ $2.10

Spain have cleared this line in every Nations League game so far.

Croatia have also conceded inside the first 10 minutes against both Spain and England in this window. Against a side that pressed England into a mistake for Yamal’s opener at Wembley, I don’t see their back four suddenly tightening up.

The risk is a 2-0 where Spain ease off after the break, as they did against Czechia. I’m happy to take that risk at this price.

At $2.10, it’s a bet I’d happily place on the best online betting sites in New Zealand.