Crystal Palace vs Arsenal Prediction: EPL Betting Tips & Odds

Crystal Palace host Arsenal at Selhurst Park on Monday morning New Zealand time in the final round of the Premier League season.

Arsenal have already clinched their first title in 22 years, and they’ll collect the trophy at full-time. But with a Champions League final against PSG six days later and Palace’s Conference League date in Leipzig three days after this, both managers have bigger things on their minds than a dead rubber at Selhurst.

In this Crystal Palace vs Arsenal preview, I look at the dynamics of a match where neither side can afford injuries. I’ve got an under goals angle at long odds for those checking football sports betting markets this week.

Crystal Palace

Palace are winding down a long season. Their Premier League form since April has been poor - winless in their last five league games, alternating between defeats and stalemates. Losses to Bournemouth and Man City have been broken up by stalemates against Everton and Brentford, but there’s been no wins anywhere. 

At home they’ve been on a strong run - 11 league games unbeaten at Selhurst Park - but the last three of those have all ended level, and the confidence from earlier in the season has faded.

I don’t think Glasner will go easy here despite the Conference League final against Rayo Vallecano coming three days later. He’s said as much publicly, calling it the last game at Selhurst this season and insisting his players owe their fans a performance. 

Minutes will be managed, though. Ismaila Sarr and Jean-Philippe Mateta have been the goal threats all season, but I’d expect at least one of them to come off early in the second half.

Adam Wharton controlling the tempo in midfield is Palace’s biggest weapon. If Arsenal rotate, Wharton could dictate proceedings.

Team News: Richards and Riad are both doubts after going off injured against Brentford. Sosa, Nketiah and Doucoure are all out.

Predicted Lineup: Henderson; Clyne, Lacroix, Riad, Mitchell; Lerma, Wharton, Hughes; Sarr, Mateta, Devenny.

Arsenal

Champions. It still sounds strange after 22 years, but Arteta got it done. 

City’s draw at Bournemouth on Tuesday confirmed the title, and now Arsenal arrive at Selhurst Park with a very different set of priorities. Their Champions League final against PSG in Budapest is six days away, and I’d be stunned if Arteta doesn’t rotate heavily.

Riccardo Calafiori was part of a tactical triple change on 71 minutes against Burnley as Arteta shut up shop, but there’s no reason to risk him here either. Bukayo Saka, Declan Rice and Gabriel have been immense this season and all need protecting. Viktor Gyokeres came off the bench as part of the reshuffle - I can’t see him starting.

I’d expect to see Martinelli, Jesus, Zubimendi and Madueke from the start. Odegaard and Eze might feature, but for limited minutes.

Team News: White is out for the season. Timber remains a long-term absentee. Merino is unlikely to feature. Raya should be fine after a collision against Burnley.

Predicted Lineup: Raya; Mosquera, Saliba, Hincapie, Lewis-Skelly; Zubimendi, Norgaard; Madueke, Odegaard, Martinelli; Jesus.

• Arsenal haven’t lost to Palace in nine consecutive meetings.
• Palace are on an 11-game unbeaten run at home in the Premier League.
• Crystal Palace have ended their last three home league fixtures level.
• Arsenal have won four of their last five Premier League matches.
• Arsenal have conceded just one goal in their last four Premier League outings.

I’m going against the grain here and tipping a stalemate. 

Arsenal have nothing to play for in terms of points, and everything to lose in terms of fitness ahead of Budapest. Arteta will rotate. Palace, despite Glasner’s bravado about going full-strength, also have Leipzig on their minds.

I think we get a strange, flat game where neither side commits. Palace’s home record is good enough to avoid defeat, and Arsenal’s second-string is still talented enough to compete. 

But the intensity won’t be there. 

I’ve watched enough dead rubbers to know how these tend to go - lots of possession, not much urgency, then a late goal or two when legs tire. A 1-1 draw wouldn’t surprise me at all.

If you’re using sports betting apps to follow the Premier League final day, this is one where patience with the goals markets could pay off.

Under 2.5 Goals @ $2.10

Both managers will manage minutes. Glasner has already said as much, even while pledging a strong starting side. Arteta won’t let Saka or Rice play 90 minutes here with the biggest game in Arsenal’s modern history less than a week away.

Palace have been involved in low-scoring home games recently - under 2.5 would have paid in two of their last three at Selhurst. Arsenal’s defensive record across the last month has been outstanding, conceding just one goal in four league matches.

At $2.10, I’m happy to back it on the betting promotions available across New Zealand right now.