World Cup Qualifiers: Ecuador vs Brazil - Betting Tips, Odds & Prediction

Brazil will begin life under Carlo Ancelotti with a challenging World Cup 2026 qualifier away trip to Ecuador at Estadio Monumental Banco Pichincha on Friday morning. 

NZ betting sites are labeling Brazil the favourites, but Ecuador are in a much more comfortable position heading into the tie. La Tricolor sit second in the standings with 23 points to their name, while Brazil are fourth with a 21-point haul. 

A new dawn beckons for Brazil, but can Ecuador spoil the party? Our match preview has everything you need to know, plus the best betting tips for the game including a $6.50 bet on Raphinha. 

Ecuador 

Ecuador entered the 2026 World Cup qualifiers with a three-point disadvantage as they were penalised for fielding an ineligible player in the 2022 World Cup qualifiers against Chile. The setback, however, barely slowed them down. Ecuador are now within touching distance of qualification, second only to Argentina on the table.

Sebastian Beccacece’s men are now unbeaten in their last seven qualifier games and conceded only once during that run. Football betting sites, therefore, are expecting their clash against Brazil to be another low-scoring affair. 

Overall, Ecuador have conceded only five times in their 14-match qualifying campaign, but that record is up for a tricky test against some of the best attackers in the planet. 

Team News: Enner Valencia remains a doubt, but the veteran striker is confident he will recover from the hamstring issue in time to face the Selecao. 

Predicted Lineup: Galindez; Ordonez, Torres, Pacho, Estupinan; Plata, Vite, Caicedo, Franco, Mercado; Valencia.

Brazil 

After months of speculation, it has finally happened. Carlo Ancelotti made history as the first foreign manager to take charge of the Brazil national team. The Italian tactician, who has an illustrious record in European club football, will now set his sights on leading Brazil to their sixth World Cup title. 

All eyes will be on Vinicius Jr., who has found the net just six times for Brazil since his debut in 2019. He blossomed into one of Europe’s deadliest attackers under Ancelotti at Real Madrid. Can Ancelotti help Vinicius discover his prolific form for Brazil as well?

Team News: Ancelotti has chosen not to pick Neymar Jr. who barely got minutes in recent months because of recurrent injuries.

Predicted Lineup: Alisson; Vanderson, Marquinhos, Ortiz, Beraldo; Casemiro, Guimaraes, Rodrygo, Raphinha, Vinicius; Cunha.

• Ecuador have only won twice against Brazil.
• Brazil are currently on a 13-match unbeaten streak against Ecuador.
• Three of the last two matches between these two sides, however, ended in stalemates.
• Brazil won the reverse fixture 1-0 at Couto Pereira, with Rodrygo scoring the decisive goal. 

The numbers suggest this is not going to be a goal-fest. Brazil have scored only five goals in their last four qualifier matches, and as we previously mentioned, Ecuador have an impeccable defensive record. 

That said, the new manager's bounce might bring out the best in Brazil. They have some of the best attackers in the world in Vinicius, Raphinha, and Rodrygo. Antony, who has had a stellar season with Betis, will also be an option. New Manchester United signing Matheus Cunha has also been called up to the squad. 

Ecuador has historically struggled against Brazil and it has been 21 years since they enjoyed their last win against the record-time world champions. 

We expect the visitors to produce the kind of free-flowing football we've come to associate with Ancelotti’s sides and secure a convincing win in what promises to be a tricky fixture.

Raphinha first goalscorer @ $6.50 

Raphinha is a Ballon d’Or contender this season, coming off an incredibly successful season with Barcelona. He has scored 34 goals for the Catalonians in 2024/25, so he is our prime candidate to open the scoring in this game. PlayUp has Raphinha at $6.50 to open the scoring — a strong value pick for first goalscorer.