Freiburg vs Villa Prediction: Europa League Betting Tips

Freiburg and Aston Villa meet in Istanbul on Thursday morning New Zealand time for the Europa League final, with Besiktas Park hosting the first-ever meeting between these two clubs.

I’ve been looking forward to this one. Villa are rightful favourites, but Freiburg’s run through the knockouts - overcoming first-leg deficits against both Genk and Braga - suggests they won’t be overwhelmed by the occasion. 

In this Freiburg vs Aston Villa preview, I break down both sides and a BTTS angle at decent value for anyone tracking football betting markets this week.

Freiburg

I’ll give them this - Freiburg have no business being in a European final. But somehow, they’re seven wins from seven at home in this competition, with 25 goals scored across 14 games. They’ve also got a cheeky habit of coming back from a goal down.

Their semi-final against Braga summed things up well. Down 2-1 after the first leg, Lukas Kubler scored twice in the home return to drag them through 4-3 on aggregate. Vincenzo Grifo has five Europa League goals this season, and Igor Matanovic’s 14-goal campaign across all competitions is brilliant.

I’m wary of their defensive record, though. No clean sheet in their last nine outings, and 13 of their 34 Bundesliga games ended in defeat. On neutral ground, without the Europa-Park Stadion crowd, that could cost them.

Team News: Suzuki is out for the season with a broken collarbone. Rosenfelder and Kyereh are also sidelined. Osterhage is a doubt with a knee issue.

Predicted Lineup: Atubolu; Kubler, Ginter, Lienhart, Treu; Eggestein, Manzambi; Beste, Holer, Grifo; Matanovic.

Aston Villa

Villa demolished Liverpool 4-2 in their final home game of the season, with Morgan Rogers, John McGinn and Ollie Watkins all scoring (the latter twice). That secured Champions League qualification and gave them the perfect confidence boost heading to Istanbul.

I think the experience gap is where this final gets decided. Emery has won this competition four times across five previous finals, while Julian Schuster is coaching in his first continental decider. 

Villa’s Europa League numbers are ridiculous too. We’re talking 12 wins from 14 games, 28 goals scored, just eight conceded. Their 4-0 demolition of Forest in the semi-final second leg was the best I’ve seen them all season - Watkins opened the scoring before Buendia converted a penalty and McGinn added a late brace.

Amadou Onana is a question though. He’s been out with a calf problem since the Forest first leg and has missed the last four matches. Lindelof has filled in well, but Onana’s physicality would be a huge asset in a match where midfield control is key.

Team News: Kamara is out for the season. Onana is targeting a return and could feature. Mings and Lindelof are expected fit after minor issues. Buendia had ice on his calf post-Liverpool but trained normally. Alysson is sidelined.

Predicted Lineup: Martinez; Cash, Konsa, Torres, Digne; Lindelof, Tielemans; McGinn, Rogers, Buendia; Watkins.

• Villa have won 12 of their 14 Europa League games this season.
• Freiburg haven’t kept a clean sheet in their last nine matches across all competitions.
• Emery has won four of his five previous Europa League finals.
• Freiburg won all seven European home games this season but haven’t played on neutral ground.
• Both teams scored in four of Freiburg’s six knockout stage matches.
• Villa have scored 28 goals across their 14 Europa League games this season.

I’m tipping Villa to win this. Freiburg’s knockout resilience this season does concern me though - they’ve overturned deficits in two separate ties and have been prolific throughout.

But Emery in a Europa League final isn’t something you want to be betting against. He’s won this trophy with Sevilla and Villarreal, and knows how to prepare a squad for a one-off occasion like this. 

I’d have Villa winning 2-1. Watkins and Rogers have been in outstanding form, and I can see Rogers causing problems with his movement between the lines. Freiburg will score - they’ve been too dangerous in transition not to - but I don’t see them matching Villa across 90 minutes. 

If you’re keen to get in on the best betting apps this week, Villa at $1.75 is where I’d start.

Both Teams to Score @ $1.75

Villa haven’t been great defensively - four consecutive matches without a clean sheet. Freiburg have scored in all but two of their 14 Europa League games, and Grifo plus Matanovic have been too consistent to be shut out.

Going the other way, Villa’s attack has been relentless. Twenty-eight goals in 14 Europa League games, and Freiburg’s nine-game run without a clean sheet suggests they’ll struggle to contain Watkins and Rogers.

At $1.75, BTTS is a price I’m comfortable backing for a final between two sides who would rather outscore you than defend.

Check the free sports bet promotions available on New Zealand’s top platforms ahead of this one.