UEFA Nations League: Germany vs Portugal - Betting Tips, Odds & Prediction

Allianz Arena will see another heavyweight clash only days after the Champions League final when Germany welcomes Portugal to Munich this Thursday for the first 2024/25 UEFA Nations League semi-final.

This headline fixture brings together two former European champions at very different stages of their evolution. Germany appear more disciplined and structured under Julian Nagelsmann, whereas Roberto Martinez’s Portugal remain inconsistent with veteran superstar Cristiano Ronaldo.

Betting sites in NZ have rolled out their latest odds for this battle. We take a look at the best bets on Germany vs Portugal and the key factors that will shape the match. 

Germany

Germany hit the reset button after a lacklustre EURO 2024. Die Mannschaft veterans Manuel Neuer, Ilkay Gundogan, Toni Kroos, and Thomas Muller hung up their boots, allowing Nagelsmann to oversee a fresh rebuild with young, dynamic players. 

The side booked their place in the semi-finals with a tense 5-4 aggregate win over Italy. After claiming a 2-1 away win in Milan, they appeared to be in control—only to nearly unravel in a frenetic second leg. But they managed to weather the storm and progress to the semi-finals as favourites across football betting sites. 

Team News: Angelo Stiller has withdrawn from Nagelsmann’s Germany squad with a ligament injury, with FSV Mainz striker Jonathan Burkardt called up as his replacement.

Predicted Lineup: Ter Stegen; Kimmich, Tah, Anton, Mittelstadt; Goretzka, Gross; Sane, Musiala, Wirtz; Burkardt.

Portugal

Portugal arrive at the semi-finals with a clean bill of health and a full squad. While their post-EURO 2024 form has been consistent, doubts remain over their sharpness in high-stakes knockout matches—especially with Cristiano Ronaldo still starting up front, where attacking cohesion hasn’t always been convincing.

Portugal dismantled Denmark 5-2 at home to snatch a 5-3 aggregate victory and a place in the Nations League semi-finals. Ronaldo and company will still be concerned about their recent form, however, having won only once in their last six matches.

Team News: Portugal are set to enter the semi-final without any major injury issues. Multiple Selcao stars were in action on Sunday in the Champions League final, and as of now, there have been no injury updates.

Predicted Lineup: Costa; Dalot, Antonio Silva, Dias, Nuno Mendes; Joao Neves, Vitinha; Bernardo Silva, Fernandes, Leao; Ronaldo.

• Germany have won in their last five meetings with Portugal.
• Portugal have only scored five goals in their last 10 competitive matches against Germany.
• There have been 25 goals in the last 10 Germany vs Portugal matches.
• Ronaldo has scored only once in his five competitive appearances against Germany.

Under Julian Nagelsmann, Germany have adopted a high-energy, front-foot style as they build towards the 2026 World Cup. With the creativity and technical brilliance of Jamal Musiala and Florian Wirtz, they are well-equipped to break down defences.

Portugal enter with a wealth of experience and quality, they’ve occasionally lacked cutting edge in the final third. The midfield duo of Vitinha and Neves has added much-needed stability, though their impact could be tempered by recent club commitments. Ronaldo still provides goals, but his presence may reduce the team’s tactical flexibility in the final third.

With home advantage and strong recent form on their side, Germany are slight favourites. Portugal’s talent is unquestioned, but Germany’s fresher squad and attacking style might just tip the balance in an exciting clash. We’re with the bookies on this one, and expect the hosts to get through this one.

Jonathan Burkardt to Score Two Goals or More @ 10.00 

Jonathan Burkardt faces strong competition from Deniz Undav for a starting spot, but the Mainz 05 striker’s incredible form might convince Nagelsmann to hand him a start. He has scored 19 goals for Mainz this season in 30 outings. 

If he starts, he’s a good chance of finding the back of the net multiple times against an inconsistent Portugal defence. Bet365 is offering a $10 return on Burkardt scoring twice or more, which we are inclined to take.