FA Cup: Hull City vs Chelsea – Betting Tips, Odds & Prediction

Hull City host Chelsea on Saturday morning New Zealand time in an FA Cup fourth round match at the MKM Stadium.

It’s a massive opportunity for the hosts to knock off a top flight heavyweight, while the visitors will want to keep their cup run alive. More importantly, it’s Liam Rosenior’s first time at the MKM Stadium since taking over as Chelsea’s manager, having previously been in charge of Hull City. Expect both sides - plus the crowd - to be well and truly up for this one as a result.

I’ve looked at the numbers to see where the value sits in this Hull City vs Chelsea preview. From the latest team news to the hard stats, I cover everything you need to know, including a $3.10 play for anyone looking to use NZ betting sites this weekend.

Hull City

While the Tigers have had an up-and-down season, they’re still right in the hunt for promotion in the Championship. They come into this one after a tough 3-2 loss to Bristol City which snapped a decent unbeaten run. At home, they can be a real challenge for visiting sides, though they’ve struggled for clean sheets recently.

I like the way they’ve been attacking with pace this season. Oli McBurnie is the man they will look to for a goal - he’s bagged 12 already this season and will be hoping to take on a rotated Chelsea backline. Football betting sites have them as heavy underdogs for good reason, but if they can make it a scrap and get the crowd behind them early, they’re an outside chance.

Team News: Steven Alzate and Mohamed Belloumi are out.

Predicted Lineup: Pandur; Coyle, Egan, Hughes, Famewo; Slater, Hadziahmetovic; Millar, Gelhardt, Joseph; McBurnie.

Chelsea

Chelsea are in fine form right now, though their four-match winning streak was dampened by a 2-2 draw against Leeds most recently. Still, they sit comfortably inside the top four. 

My main concern here is rotation. With a busy schedule, I expect plenty of big names (think: Cole Palmer, Joao Pedro) to get a rest. That said, even with a second string side, they have a heap of quality. 

Pedro Neto and Alejandro Garnacho have world class pace on the wings, love space and average nearly two goals a game on the road. Against Hull’s Championship-level defenders, it’s hard to not see them making the difference here. 

Team News: Marc Cucurella is out with a hamstring injury. Reece James and Tosin Adarabioyo are major doubts.

Predicted Lineup: Sanchez; Gusto, Sarr, Badiashile, Hato; Caicedo, Santos; Neto, Estevao, Garnacho; Delap.

• Chelsea have won eight consecutive matches against Hull City across all competitions.
• Hull City have failed to beat Chelsea in their last 13 meetings, dating back to 1988.
• The last meeting between these two in the FA Cup ended in a 2-1 win for Chelsea in 2020.
• Chelsea have scored at least two goals in each of their last three away games.
• Both teams have scored in 65% of Chelsea’s matches this season.

Even with a rotated squad, I’m confident Chelsea will come away with a result here. The gulf in quality between the two sides is just too big. Hull City are a gutsy team and they will definitely give it a crack in front of their home fans, but Chelsea’s attack is simply too fast and clinical for them to survive 90 minutes.

I expect the visitors to control the ball and pick Hull apart when gaps arise. Hull might nick a goal through McBurnie if Chelsea grow comfortable, but it should only be a consolation. I’m picking a 3-1 victory for the visitors, but I’ll also be keeping an eye out for betting promotions regarding McBurnie as an anytime scorer and will take that if the price is right..

Chelsea to Win and Both Teams to Score @ $3.10

There’s little point getting money behind Chelsea to win outright, given most betting apps have them returning around $1.33. However, I do see value in them prevailing but both teams scoring.

While Chelsea are the better team, they struggle to keep clean sheets away from home, having conceded in most of their recent road trips. Hull are desperate for an upset and usually find the net at the MKM Stadium. I can see a scenario where Chelsea go a couple up and then let in a late goal. At $3.10 with Bet and Play, it's a much better price than the straight away win.