UEFA Champions League: Inter Milan vs Liverpool - Betting Tips, Odds & Prediction

Two clubs in contrasting form meet at the San Siro on Wednesday morning NZT. Inter Milan sit fourth in the Champions League standings with 12 points from five games. Liverpool, the defending Premier League champions, are in 13th with nine points and in the middle of their worst run of form in over 70 years.

It’s now nine defeats in 12 games across all competitions for Arne Slot's side. That includes three consecutive losses by three or more goals for the first time since 1953. There’s no denying that the reigning English champions are unravelling.

Inter, meanwhile, are flying. Three straight wins with an 11-1 goal difference. They're top of Serie A and look every bit like the team that reached last season's Champions League final.
Below, I've pulled together team news, stats, lineups and a betting tip, as well as the latest odds from the top betting websites for Kiwi punters.

Inter Milan

Inter are a different beast since Cristian Chivu took over. He’s rebuilt their confidence quickly since they were thrashed 5-0 in the Champions League final, and now they sit top of Serie A with eight wins from 11. In particular, their home form has been impressive, with five wins from six at the San Siro.

Their 4-0 win over Como on Saturday showed Inter at their ruthless best. Lautaro Martinez continues to lead the line with intensity, and now sits at 13 goals across all competitions this season. Inter have been solid in Europe too: four wins, one defeat, 12 scored and just three conceded.

Team News: Denzel Dumfries and Matteo Darmian are doubtful, while Henrikh Mkhitaryan is also a concern.

Predicted Lineup: Sommer; Akanji, Acerbi, Bastoni; Carlos Augusto, Barella, Calhanoglu, Sucic, Dimarco; Thuram, Martinez.

Liverpool

Where do you even start with these guys? The defending Premier League champions have absolutely imploded, and the pressure on Slot is becoming unbearable.

Their 4-1 defeat to PSV at Anfield summed up the current state of affairs at the club. Virgil van Dijk gave away an early penalty, Ibrahima Konate made costly errors, and the fans left early. Even Mohamed Salah has been benched, while Alexander Isak has just one goal this season. The only bright spot has been Hugo Ekitike, but he picked up a back injury against PSV.

Alarmingly, teams have worked out that quick transitions expose the space behind their inverted full-backs. As a result, Liverpool have now conceded 17 goals in 14 Premier League games and eight in five Champions League matches.

Team News: Jeremie Frimpong is out with a hamstring injury while Ekitike is in doubt too. Conor Bradley has returned to training, however.

Predicted Lineup: Mamardashvili; Bradley, Konate, Van Dijk, Kerkez; Mac Allister, Gravenberch; Salah, Szoboszlai, Gakpo; Isak.

• Liverpool have lost nine of their last 12 games, their worst run since 1953-54.
• Inter have won three straight with an 11-1 goal difference.
• Inter have conceded just three goals in five Champions League games.
• All four previous meetings between these sides have ended with fewer than three goals.

This is a terrible time for Liverpool to visit one of Europe's most intimidating stadiums. Inter are organised, confident and clinical, while Liverpool are fragmented and searching for answers.

Lautaro Martinez and Thuram are one of the most dangerous partnerships in Europe. Against a Liverpool defence that has forgotten how to keep clean sheets, they'll absolutely get chances.

In saying that, Liverpool still have quality, as Salah, Gakpo and Szoboszlai can hurt anyone on their day. But on balance, this team lacks the cohesion to get a result at the San Siro.

I'm backing Inter to win. My top football betting tip is simply to take the hosts at $2.30, which is great value at Bet and Play.

Inter Milan Win & Under 3.5 Goals @ $3.20

There’s a temptation to tip another Liverpool hiding here, but I recommend staying away from that line of thinking.

The reality is, Inter don't need to blow teams away. They're built on control and taking their chances -  three goals conceded in five Champions League games tells you all you need to know.

Expect Liverpool to compete and create half-chances. But they won't win.

The head-to-head between these two teams supports the under as well. All four previous meetings ended with fewer than three goals. Inter's defensive discipline, combined with Liverpool's misfiring attack - 1.6 goals per game, down from 2.3 last year - points to a tight affair.

If you're checking out new betting sites for this one, $3.20 for an Inter win with under 3.5 goals is the smart play. Expect 2-0 or 2-1 to the hosts.