UEFA World Cup Qualifiers: Italy vs Norway - Betting Tips, Odds & Prediction

As expected, Italy and Norway have claimed the top two spots in the 2026 UEFA World Cup qualifiers Group I. The battle at San Siro is mostly a battle of pride since Norway have grabbed the top spot, while Italy are still alive, but just to fight another day. 

The Azzurri must survive the playoffs to confirm their World Cup return after 12 years. Norway, meanwhile, have secured World Cup qualification by winning the group. This will be their first World Cup campaign since 1998.

We explore the odds football betting sites are offering before moving on to our Italy vs Norway preview, which includes an $8.50 tip on the correct score.

Norway

Norway made it seven out of seven with an incredible victory against Estonia, ending the nation’s 28-year-wait to return to the World Cup. 

Stale Solbakken's side have overcome all teams that have come their way throughout their qualifying run. An emphatic 3-0 victory against Italy in Oslo back in June set the stage for such a historic campaign. 

Norway have scored freely, with Erling Haaland alone finding the back of the net 14 times. Betting sites in NZ are expecting the Norwegians to continue their scoring form against Italy.

Team News: Norway will once again be without their skipper Martin Odegaard, who remains sidelined with a knee injury.

Predicted Lineup: Nyland; Ryerson, Heggem, Ajer, Wolfe; Berg, Berge; Bobb, Sorloth, Nusa; Haaland.

Italy

Thanks to back-to-back victories in October, Italy are certain to finish no lower than second when the qualifier group stages wrap up at San Siro on Monday.

Playoff heartbreaks kept Italy out of the last two World Cups, so fans feel far from assured with another playoff qualification. However, the four-time world champions seem to have become a more resilient side under Gennaro Gattuso.

A win against Norway will convince the fans that brighter days are indeed ahead for Gattuso’s men. NZ betting apps consider Italy the favourite by some margin.

Team News: Nicolo Barella will be available for selection after serving a one-match ban against Moldova.

Predicted Lineup: Donnarumma; Di Lorenzo, Mancini, Bastoni, Dimarco; Barella, Locatelli, Tonali; Orsolini, Retegui, Zaccagni.

• Erling Haaland has scored 14 goals in the UEFA World Cup qualifiers - no other player has scored more. 
• Norway have won only two competitive matches against Italy, but one of those was when the teams last met. 
• Italy kept three clean sheets in their first six qualifier matches, while Norway have managed four in their last seven.

Neither of these teams have much to play for in this match. Norway’s attention will already have shifted to their next goal: actually making a dent at next year’s World Cup. Italy still have work to do, but a win or loss on Monday will not have any direct implications for their playoff campaign, other than boosted morale. 

That said, Italy will be keen on maintaining the upward trajectory they have been on since losing to Norway in the first match. Other than their chaotic 5-4 win against Israel, they have been in control in their remaining matches. 

This is just a warm up match for Norway. Beating Italy at San Siro would be a special achievement, but since the qualification equation is settled, players won’t feel the same level of urgency as they did in the previous games. 

All things considered, we see Italy winning this game.

Italy 2-1 Norway @ $8.50

Norway should be able to breach the Italian defence, given the firepower they have. But a motivated Italian attack should be able to outscore Norway in front of a raucous San Siro crowd. Even though Norway cruised to a 3-0 lead in the first half the last time these two sides played, we expect a more balanced, composed display this time around. We are tipping Italy to win this by 2-1 for an $8.50 return at Bet and Play.