Premier League: Leeds vs Manchester City - Betting Tips, Odds & Prediction

Leeds take on Manchester City at Elland Road on Sunday morning New Zealand time in a Premier League fixture of survival vs silverware.

City are locked in a title race with Arsenal, just five points off the top, while Leeds are scrapping to stay up in their first season back. But Elland Road under the floodlights is no place for easy points. Will we see a boilover this Sunday?

In my Leeds vs Manchester City preview below, I breakdown the latest form, key players, and outline a $2.90 bet that I reckon is worth a look on football betting sites.

Leeds

It hasn’t been an easy return to the top flight after two years away, but Leeds are hanging in there.

So far, they’ve ground out enough results to sit six points clear of the drop. Four draws from their last six league outings sum their season up well: Leeds are hard to beat but struggle to win. Their 1-1 draw at Villa was a case in point. Stach scored a beauty from a free kick, only for Tammy Abraham to nick a late equaliser and ruin their good work.

At home, there’s more to like about this side. Elland Road has been their safe haven with the crowd giving them an extra gear. Dominic Calvert-Lewin is their biggest weapon with nine league goals so far this season. If he gets enough ball, he’ll test City. The problem is getting it through to him, given City’s tendency to dominate possession.

Team News: Noah Okafor misses out with a hamstring injury. Stach, Pascal Struijk, and Daniel James are all fit after returning to training.

Predicted Lineup: Darlow; Bogle, Rodon, Struijk, Gudmundsson; Ampadu, Stach; James, Gruev, Gnonto; Calvert-Lewin.

Manchester City

City are hot on the heels of Arsenal, and have some real momentum heading into the back stretch of the season.

They now sit on five consecutive wins, including against Liverpool and Newcastle, and are just five points behind the table leaders. Nico O’Reilly has been on fire, scoring four goals in his last three starts, while Erling Haaland continues to score with alarming regularity too. Omar Marmoush has also added another dimension to City’s attack since arriving in January.

Defence is City’s area of weakness at the moment. Josko Gvardiol is out for the season with a broken leg, and Mateo Kovacic won’t return any time soon. That said, Marc Guehi has slotted in well since his move from Crystal Palace. 

Team News: Gvardiol (broken leg) and Kovacic (ankle) are long-term absentees. Rodri is fit and expected to start. John Stones returned from injury recently.

Predicted Lineup: Donnarumma; Nunes, Dias, Guehi, Ait-Nouri; Bernardo Silva, Rodri, Foden; Semenyo, Haaland, Marmoush.

• Manchester City have scored in 11 consecutive matches against Leeds across all competitions.
• The reverse fixture ended 3-2 to City at the Etihad earlier this season.
• Leeds have drawn four of their last six Premier League games.
• City have won five straight across all competitions, scoring 12 and conceding just 3.
• Both teams have scored in each of the last three meetings between these sides.

I don’t think Leeds can hold out for 90 minutes, but I do think they’ll be able to score themselves.

Haaland will fancy his chances against Rodon and Struijk, who’ve been shaky at best. However, Leeds have a knack for scoring early, with their last four Premier League goals all coming in the first 15 minutes. 

My prediction is a Manchester City win with both sides getting on the scoresheet. Something like 3-1 feels about right. City will control this game for long stretches, but Leeds are too sharp at home to be shut out. If you’ve got free bets to use, this fixture has plenty of angles worth exploring.

Manchester City Win and Both Teams to Score @ $2.90

City have scored two or more goals in five of their last six league games, and their forward line of Haaland, Semenyo, and Marmoush is red-hot. But Leeds have scored in almost every home game since October. Calvert-Lewin won’t go quietly, and City’s back line without Gvardiol has shown some vulnerability.

The reverse fixture finished 3-2, and every recent meeting between these two has produced goals at both ends. Getting close to $3.00 at Sportaza for a City win with goals from both sides is solid value. It’s the sort of result that keeps happening in this fixture, and I’d be surprised if Saturday is any different.