FA Cup: Liverpool vs Brighton - Betting Tips, Odds & Prediction

Liverpool host Brighton on Sunday morning New Zealand time in an FA Cup fourth round contest at Anfield.

I’ve spent the morning looking at the numbers and it’s hard to see past the Reds here. Liverpool are fresh off a gritty 1-0 win at Sunderland where Virgil van Dijk showed exactly why he’s the best in the business with a late header. They’ve got a bit of an injury crisis at right-back, but even with a reshuffle, they look miles ahead of a Brighton side that’s basically in freefall. The Seagulls copped a 1-0 loss at Villa Park midweek and have only managed one win in their last 14 matches. 

There’s a lucrative $3.50 play on New Zealand betting sites that I’m personally jumping on, which I’ll break down in this Liverpool vs Brighton preview. If you’re into football betting, this match feels like one where the form book actually tells the truth.

Liverpool

I’m really liking the character Liverpool are showing this season. Not only are they racking up the wins, but they’re winning ugly when they have to, which is a great sign. Florian Wirtz has been pure gold since he joined last summer, even picking up Player of the Month in January. 

My only concern is their right-back slot. With Conor Bradley and Jeremie Frimpong both out through long-term injuries, and Wataru Endo now out after being stretchered off against Sunderland with a serious ankle injury, they’re light on the flank. I expect Joe Gomez will slot in as a replacement, but he’s a step down from the aforementioned names. 

It’s also a shame Alexander Isak is still sidelined, because he’d have a field day against this Brighton backline. Still, I’m comfortable that even with their injuries, the Reds have enough quality to get by.

Team News: Wataru Endo (ankle), Conor Bradley, Jeremie Frimpong, and Alexander Isak are all out.

Predicted Lineup: Alisson; Gomez, Konate, Van Dijk, Robertson; Szoboszlai, Mac Allister, Gravenberch; Salah, Nunez, Wirtz.

Brighton

Brighton are a real shambles at the moment. Just two wins since November is atrocious for a team that is this good on paper. They looked completely lost at Villa Park yesterday and I just can’t see them finding any joy at Anfield either.

Their defence is missing Solly March and Adam Webster through injuries, and it’s having a flow on effect on their whole structure. While they’ve still got dangerous players like Mitoma, they aren’t creating any meaningful opportunities for Welbeck or Rutter. 

Unless they find a way to do so, they’ll get passed into oblivion. If you look at the latest markets on betting apps, you’ll see bookies have basically written them off already.

Team News: Yasin Ayari (shoulder) is a doubt. Solly March and Adam Webster are out with knee injuries.

Predicted Lineup: Verbruggen; Veltman, Van Hecke, Dunk, Estupinan; Wieffer, Baleba; Minteh, Rutter, Mitoma; Welbeck.

• Liverpool have won four of their last five home matches across all competitions.
• Brighton have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last six outings.
• The Reds kept a clean sheet in their last match against Sunderland.
• Brighton have only won twice in their last 15 games.
• Both teams have scored in only 40 percent of Brighton’s recent away trips.

I’m finding it impossible to tip anything other than a home win here. Brighton are in a massive rut, while Liverpool find ways to win even with a growing injury list. 

I expect Wirtz and Salah to dominate this match for Liverpool. This should stem from the mismatch in the middle of the park, where Mac Allister and Gravenberch are in brilliant form. They’re going to suffocate Brighton’s midfield and cut off the supply to Welbeck before their attack even starts. I reckon Brighton will spend most of the match chasing shadows while Liverpool patiently wait for an opening to kill the game off.

I’m predicting a comfortable 2-0 victory for Liverpool. Brighton might stay in it for a while, but they don’t have the firepower to worry Alisson over 90 minutes. If you’ve got free bets to burn, a straightforward home win is the way I’m leaning.

Liverpool to Win and Under 3.5 Goals @ $3.50

I don’t think Liverpool will go out and score five given they’ve got a few key men missing. I’m also very confident that they’ll come away victorious. A 2-0 or 3-0 win feels about right, which makes the under 3.5 goals a great addition to the home win to bump the price up, with 20Bet paying $3.50 for these two markets combined.