Premier League: Liverpool vs Brighton - Betting Tips, Odds & Prediction

Liverpool and Brighton meet at Anfield on Sunday morning NZT with both sides level on 23 points.

The defending champions are 10^th coming into this clash. If that doesn’t tell you how Arne Slot’s season has gone, Mohamed Salah’s post-match interview after the Leeds draw certainly will — he accused the manager of throwing him under the bus, and promptly got dropped. It’s giving messy.

Brighton, meanwhile, beat Liverpool 3-2 back in May and won’t be intimidated by the trip north. Manager Fabian Hurzeler has his side playing sharp football, as evidenced by their strong position on the table right now (seventh).

I’ve broken down the latest odds, team news, injuries, and head-to-head stats in this Liverpool vs Brighton preview. Read on to find out why I’m confident about a $3.90 play on this fixture at top NZ betting site Bet and Play.

Liverpool

For Liverpool it’s been back-to-back draws, before scraping past Inter Milan 1-0 most recently. Even that needed an 88th-minute Szoboszlai penalty, hardly convincing stuff.

The Salah situation is overshadowing everything else. After the Leeds game — where Liverpool threw away a 2-0 lead in 20 minutes — he went public with his frustrations and Slot responded by leaving him out of the squad entirely for the Champions League trip.

Ekitike’s been the bright spot with five league goals, but he and Alexander Isak (their £125m record signing) haven’t clicked as a partnership yet. They’ve barely played together and it shows.

With 17 league goals conceded — more than Brighton and even Brentford — this isn’t the Liverpool defence of old. Van Dijk has made errors, Konate too. Most football betting tips still favour the hosts, but $1.70 looks short given everything that’s going wrong.

Team News: Bradley suspended. Gakpo, Leoni out. Chiesa, Endo, Frimpong doubtful.

Predicted Lineup: Alisson; Gomez, Konate, Van Dijk, Robertson; Gravenberch, Mac Allister; Szoboszlai, Wirtz, Jones; Ekitike.

Brighton

Hurzeler’s side have their own issues with leads. They were 2-0 up against Aston Villa earlier this month and somehow lost 4-3 at home. Then came the West Ham game — two games, two leads surrendered. It’s becoming a pattern.

Danny Welbeck is the main man with seven league goals, playing some of the best football of his career at 34. Yankuba Minteh has been causing problems down the right with four assists, and Jan Paul van Hecke — who scored twice in that Villa defeat — anchors the defence alongside Lewis Dunk, who made his 501st Brighton appearance last week.

Their away record is the concern though. Just one win on the road all season, and they haven’t won at Anfield since February 2021. In saying that, they did take points off Liverpool twice last season and won the most recent meeting comfortably. This Liverpool side is there for the taking if Brighton can stay in the game.

Team News: Tzimas out long-term. Mitoma, March, Milner doubtful

Predicted Lineup: Verbruggen; Veltman, Van Hecke, Dunk, Kadioglu; Baleba, Wieffer; Minteh, Rutter, De Cuyper; Welbeck.

• Liverpool have lost three of their last four Premier League matches as favourites.
• Brighton won the last meeting between these two side 3-2 at the Amex in May 2025.
• Over 2.5 goals has landed in six straight head-to-heads.
• Both teams have scored in seven of the last eight meetings.
• Brighton have taken the lead in two of the last three clashes.

I predict there will be goals, and plenty of them.

Liverpool can’t keep clean sheets — 17 conceded in 15 games. Brighton create chances at will, ranking third in the league for post-shot xG, and have scored in 11 of their 15 away games this season.

The last six meetings have all gone over 2.5 goals, and both teams have scored in seven of the last eight. That trend is hard to ignore.

Ekitike is dangerous. Welbeck is clinical. Both defences have been leaking goals. Slot’s side might have more talent on paper, but they’re mentally fragile right now, and Brighton have already proven they can hurt them.

Liverpool at $1.70 given their current form? I’m not touching it. Brighton at $4.35 away at Anfield is tempting but risky. A few of our recommended bookies have free bets running this week – if you can find some, this would be a good stab to take. Otherwise, for me, the value lies elsewhere.

Draw @ $3.90

Liverpool have drawn two of their last three league games. They can’t close matches out. Brighton, meanwhile, can’t hold onto leads.

This has stalemate written all over it.

Think about it: Liverpool blew a 2-0 lead against Leeds in 20 minutes, while Brighton threw away a 2-0 lead against Villa and needed a 90th-minute equaliser to rescue a point against West Ham. Neither side knows how to see a game through right now.

Slot’s team will create chances — they’ve got the talent for that. But so will Brighton, who rank seventh for xG and third for post-shot xG. Both teams will score. The question is whether either can score enough to actually win.

Liverpool are too fragile to trust at $1.70. Brighton’s away record makes backing them outright a gamble. But a messy 2-2 or a cagey 1-1? That fits both teams perfectly.

The draw at $3.90 with Bet and Play. That’s my bet.