Champions League: Liverpool vs PSG - Betting Tips, Odds & Prediction

Liverpool and Paris Saint-Germain meet at Anfield on Wednesday morning New Zealand time in the second leg of their Champions League quarter-final. PSG hold a 2-0 lead from the first leg in Paris.

Desire Doue and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia scored, and Liverpool didn’t register a single shot on target. Arne Slot’s conservative three-at-the-back setup backfired, and Mohamed Salah was left on the bench for the entire match.

In this Liverpool vs PSG preview, I’ve gone through form, team news and the tactical changes Slot needs. I’ve found value in the goals market on football betting sites if you’re keen on a punt.

Liverpool

Saturday’s 2-0 win over Fulham was exactly what Liverpool needed after a grim run. Rio Ngumoha scored brilliantly after Florian Wirtz’s driving run on 36 minutes and Salah added a second four minutes later - his first since announcing he’s leaving at the end of the season.

I’m not sure how much it changes the picture here, though. Fulham at home is one thing. Overturning a two-goal deficit against the defending Champions League holders is another level entirely. Liverpool had 26% possession in Paris and managed three shots total. Slot will have to revert to a 4-3-3 with Salah from the start, and Alexander Isak should lead the line after coming off the bench in the first leg.

Anfield on a European night is always worth a goal or two. But this Liverpool side has won just two of their last eight across all competitions, and Slot’s decision-making has been questionable.

Team News: Alisson, Bradley, Leoni, Endo, and Bajcetic are all out. Isak is fit to start. Salah will come back in.

Predicted Lineup: Mamardashvili; Frimpong, Konate, Van Dijk, Kerkez; Gravenberch, Mac Allister; Salah, Szoboszlai, Wirtz; Isak.

PSG

Five wins in a row. Seventeen goals scored, three conceded. They smashed Chelsea 8-2 on aggregate in the round of 16, beat Nice 4-0 away, cruised past Toulouse 3-1, and then controlled Liverpool in Paris without breaking a sweat.

Kvaratskhelia has eight goals and four assists in the Champions League this season - scored in four consecutive knockout games. Ousmane Dembele struck the post in the first leg and has 12 goals across Ligue 1 and the Champions League this season. I don’t see how Liverpool contain both when they go chasing the game.

Luis Enrique will be happy to absorb pressure and pick Liverpool off on the counter. PSG’s wingers are perfectly suited to it.

Team News: Fabian Ruiz is still out with a knee problem. Ndjantou also unavailable. Barcola returned to training and could feature off the bench. Kvaratskhelia is one booking away from suspension.

Predicted Lineup: Safonov; Hakimi, Marquinhos, Pacho, Mendes; Zaire-Emery, Vitinha, Neves; Doue, Dembele, Kvaratskhelia.

• PSG have won five of their last seven matches against English clubs in the Champions League.
• Liverpool failed to register a shot on target in the first leg.
• Kvaratskhelia has scored in four consecutive Champions League knockout matches this season.
• Liverpool have won just two of their last eight games across all competitions.
• PSG have scored 17 goals and conceded three in their last five matches.

I want to believe in the Anfield factor. European nights at this ground have produced some of the greatest comebacks in Champions League history. But this Liverpool side isn’t the 2019 version, and PSG are a better team than Barcelona were when they coughed up a 3-0 lead.

Slot will go with Salah and Isak from the start, and I think Liverpool will score. They have to throw everything forward, and that’s exactly what plays into PSG’s hands. Kvaratskhelia and Dembele on the counter against a defence that’s already been torn apart by Manchester City? I can see goals at both ends.

I’m tipping PSG to go through. Liverpool might win the second leg on the night, but I don’t think they’ll overturn the aggregate deficit. If you’re looking at legal betting sites for this one, the goals market is where I’d focus.

Over 2.5 Goals @ $1.55

Liverpool have to come out and attack - there’s no other option when you’re 2-0 down in a Champions League quarter-final. That opens up space at the back, and PSG are the best team in Europe at exploiting it right now.

Dembele and Kvaratskhelia will get chances on the break. Isak and Salah will create openings at the other end. Liverpool’s last 36 competitive games against French sides have never finished 0-0, and I don’t see this being the first.

At $1.55 for over 2.5 goals, the price is short, but I’m confident enough to have a decent stake on it. You can find this market on sites running betting promotions for Champions League nights this week.