Premier League: Manchester City vs Chelsea - Betting Tips, Odds & Prediction

Monday morning’s early start sees a massive fixture at the Etihad as Manchester City try to claw back the gap at the top against a Chelsea side currently in freefall.

City are chasing Arsenal for the title and can’t afford any more slip-ups after a surprise draw with Sunderland this week. Meanwhile, Chelsea are a total mess after manager Enzo Maresca got the sack on New Year’s Day. Throw in their midfield woes, and this fixture starts looking like a tall task.

I’ve gone through the numbers to see if there’s any chance of a boilover or if City will just put them to the sword. Read on for a look at the lineups and latest stats in this Manchester City vs Chelsea preview. For those after value, I’ve spotted a $3.50 play that I’ll be taking on betting sites in NZ too.

Manchester City

City are still the best team in the world on their day, despite that weird draw against Sunderland. They’ve won eight of their last nine and Erling Haaland is absolutely flying with 19 league goals already. His efficiency is just stupid: if you give him half a yard, the ball is in the back of the net.

I expect City to camp in Chelsea’s half and keep the ball all morning. They’ve been averaging nearly 2.5 goals a game at home for good reason. My only worry is that they sometimes get bored when they’re winning and let in a soft one, but after that Sunderland result, I’m picking they’ll come out pretty sharp in this fixture. Keep that in mind when looking at football expert tips this week.

Team News: John Stones and Mateo Kovacic are still sidelined. Omar Marmoush is away on international duty.

Predicted Lineup: 1. Donnarumma, 2. Nunes, 3. Dias, 4. Gvardiol, 5. O’Reilly, 6. Silva, 7. Nico, 8. Reijnders, 9. Cherki, 10. Foden, 11. Haaland.

Chelsea

Chelsea are in all sorts of trouble at the moment. Sacking your manager just before going to the Etihad is a bold move. To make matters worse, Moises Caicedo - the only one who actually does any defending in Chelsea’s midfield - is suspended.

They’ve still got some flashy players like Cole Palmer and Nicolas Jackson who can score out of nothing, but their defence is wide open. They haven’t kept a clean sheet in five matches and I just can’t see how they survive 90 minutes of City’s pressure in their current state. Unless you’ve got free sports bet promotions to burn, you’d be brave to bet on a Chelsea win.

Team News: Moises Caicedo is suspended. Reece James, Romeo Lavia, and Levi Colwill are all out injured.

Predicted Lineup: 1. Sanchez, 2. Gusto, 3. Fofana, 4. Badiashile, 5. Cucurella, 6. Fernandez, 7. Santos, 8. Neto, 9. Palmer, 10. Garnacho, 11. Jackson.

• Manchester City haven’t lost to Chelsea in their last eight attempts.
• Chelsea’s defence has conceded in every one of their last five outings.
• Erling Haaland is currently hitting the target with 43 percent of his shots.
• City are scoring at a rate of 2.4 goals per home game this season.

I can’t see anything but a dominant City win here. They’re too settled and too hungry for the title to let a managerless Chelsea stop them. Without Caicedo in the middle, Phil Foden and Haaland are going to have a field day in the gaps.

Chelsea might find a way to score because City’s defenders sometimes switch off for a coffee break once they’re in control, but it’ll only be a consolation. I’m backing a comfortable shift for the home side where they flex their muscles and keep the pressure on Arsenal in the title race.

My pick is a 3-1 win for Manchester City. It’s the same score they’ve produced a few times recently and it feels about right given Chelsea’s decent attack but rubbish defence.

Manchester City to Win and Both Teams to Score @ $3.50

This is where the money is for me. City winning is almost a certainty, but these odds are too short on their own. By adding both teams to score, you get a much better price. City have a habit of letting in a silly goal late in the piece, and Chelsea have enough individual talent upfront to nick one even if they’re being outplayed.

Getting $3.50 at Sportaza for City to get the job done while conceding a goal is great value. Chelsea have scored in most of their recent games even when they’ve lost, so this covers the likely scenario of a high-scoring City win.