Premier League: Manchester City vs Newcastle - Betting Tips, Odds & Prediction

Manchester City welcome Newcastle to the Etihad Stadium on Sunday morning New Zealand time in a Premier League fixture that carries very different weight for each side.

Second-placed City are hunting Arsenal down, sitting just four points off the top of the table with 12 games left. Newcastle, on the other hand, are stuck in 10th with 36 points from 26 games, staring at a mid-table finish unless something drastically changes. One side is chasing a title, the other is fighting to save their season, which should equal some excellent entertainment for us.

I dig into all there is to know about this match in this Manchester City vs Newcastle preview. Keep reading for everything from team news to stats, as well as a $7.50 prediction on NZ betting sites.

Manchester City

There’s a case to be made that City are the form team of the league right now.

They’ve picked up four wins in a row across all competitions, and are unbeaten in almost a month now. This has seen them close the gap on Arsenal to four points, making the title race alive and well heading into the business end of the season. 

Omar Marmoush has been brilliant since joining City in January. Phil Foden is playing great too, while Erling Haaland is banking goals like they’re going out of fashion (he’s up to 29 for the season now).

The Etihad has been a fortress this season for City, with 10 wins from 13 league games. Against Newcastle in particular, City have fond memories, thrashing the, 4-0 last time they played a Premier League match here. They’ve also beaten them twice this year in the League Cup. 

Team News: Haaland picked up a knock against Fulham but is expected to start. Jeremy Doku and Savinho could return from injury. Gvardiol and Kovacic are long-term absentees.

Predicted Lineup: Donnarumma; Nunes, Dias, Guehi, Ait-Nouri; Bernardo, Rodri; Cherki, Foden, Semenyo; Haaland.

Newcastle

It’s been a rough couple of months for Newcastle.

They’ve won just two of their last five, and their league record of 10 wins and 10 losses from 26 games screams inconsistency. Away from St. James’ Park it’s even worse, with only three wins from 13 road trips this campaign.

The biggest blow is Bruno Guimaraes. Their captain suffered a hamstring injury against Spurs and will miss 8-10 weeks. Of the 12 Premier League games Newcastle have played without Guimaraes, they’re yet to win one. To say he is a big loss is an understatement.

Sandro Tonali will need to carry the midfield load. He did score twice in their FA Cup win over Aston Villa, but replicating that against City is another kettle of fish.

Team News: Guimaraes, Wissa, and Osula are all out, while Gordon is a fitness doubt. However, Joelinton could return from a groin problem.

Predicted Lineup: Pope; Trippier, Thiaw, Botman, Hall; Tonali, Ramsey, Willock; Murphy, Woltemade, Gordon.

• Newcastle haven’t scored at the Etihad in seven straight Premier League visits.
• Manchester City have won their last three home league meetings against Newcastle without conceding.
• City are averaging 2.2 goals per game at home this season in the Premier League.
• Newcastle have lost 10 of their 26 league matches and have the worst away record of any side in the top half.
• Both teams have scored in 70% of Newcastle’s away games this season.

This is a mismatch on paper, and I’m tipping it’ll unfold that way on the pitch too.

City have too much firepower, too much momentum, and the comfort of playing at home, where they’ve been nigh on invisible. Without Guimaraes, Newcastle’s midfield will likely struggle to retain possession, let alone build any kind of attacking position. Haaland, Marmoush, and Foden will have loads of space to exploit.

Newcastle’s one hope is catching City on the counter through Barnes or Gordon, but I wouldn’t count on it. I can see City controlling this from start to finish.

I’m tipping a comfortable Manchester City win, probably 2-0 or 3-0. You can find nice prices on the latest sports betting apps in NZ for each of these correct score markets.

Manchester City Win to Nil @ $2.50  

Newcastle haven’t found the net at the Etihad in their last seven league trips. With their midfield creator out injured, I can’t see how they break through City’s setup at home.

City have kept things tight recently too, conceding just four goals in their last five matches across all competitions. Pair that with Newcastle’s dire away form and a midfield stripped of its best player, and a Manchester City clean sheet looks very achievable.

At $2.50 with Sportaza, backing City to win without conceding is excellent value. If you’ve got any betting promotions sitting around, this is the spot to use them.