English League Cup: Manchester City vs Newcastle United – Betting Tips, Odds & Prediction

Right then, it’s semi-final time and Newcastle are heading to the Etihad with a massive mountain to climb. After getting rolled 2-0 at home in the first leg, they’ve got to find a way to stop Manchester City from passing them to death yet again. It’s a tall order, especially with the way City can just flip a switch and put four past you before you’ve finished your first pint.

That said, City aren’t exactly perfect right now. They’ve had a couple of wobbles in the league lately, and if Newcastle can get an early one, this could get interesting. I’m looking at a cheeky play at $3.75 for this one that I reckon has a decent shout if the visitors show up.

I’ve been digging deeper into the match ups here to see where the value is. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or are planning to check out some of the new betting sites we recommend on BettingTop10 NZ, I’ve got you covered. It’s going to be a massive Thursday morning for anyone who loves football betting.

Manchester City

Look, even when they’re “struggling,” City are still miles ahead of most. Their draw against Tottenham was a bit unusual, so they’ll be eager to get back to Wembley and make amends. Erling Haaland’s had a quiet week by his standards, which usually means some poor defender is about to bear the full brunt of this wrath. 

One thing about City is they aren’t shy to do a bit of rotation in these Cup matches. Whether or not they stick to that with a final on the line is another question. Personally, I expect they’ll go all out here. They should play their strongest side, control the tempo and get this finished early so they can rest a few big names and coast through the second half.

Team News: John Stones and Mateo Kovacic are still out. Apart from that, they’re pretty much at full strength.

Predicted Lineup: Donnarumma; Nunes, Dias, Gvardiol, Alleyne; Silva, Gonzalez; Reijnders, Cherki, Foden; Haaland.

Newcastle United

It’s do or die for Newcastle. They’ve had a rough run of it lately and their 2-0 loss in the first leg of this tie didn’t help in the slightest. It means they need to score at least twice at the Etihad just to stay alive - a pretty tall order. The two Anthonys technically have the pace to hurt teams, but they need the ball first, and City don’t like sharing.

Overall, I feel like Newcastle’s energy levels have been a bit low lately. Losing to Liverpool on Sunday is unlikely to have helped either. If they’re to have any chance in this clash it will require them digging deep and finding something special to shift this momentum. All this to say, even if you’re using free bets this week, I’d be hesitant to take a punt on an upset.

Team News: Joelinton and Sven Botman are definitely out. Bruno Guimaraes is a bit of a doubt but I’d expect him to start.

Predicted Lineup: Pope; Livramento, Schar, Burn, Hall; Tonali, Guimaraes; Willock, Gordon, Woltemade; Elanga.

• City have won six of their last 10 meetings against Newcastle.
• Newcastle haven’t kept a clean sheet in their last five matches.
• There have been at least three goals in four of the last six games between these two.
• Manchester City have won 12 of their last 13 home games in this competition.

I’ll keep this short: City should just be too professional here. They don’t need to go crazy since they’re already two up, but they’ll want to put on a show for the home fans. Newcastle will feel pressure to go for it at some point, and that’s when City will pick them apart.

I can see the visitors getting a goal, however. City’s defence can be a bit leaky when they’re comfortable, as we’ve seen in a few fixtures this season. Shouldn’t make a difference though, as I expect this ends 2-1 for the home side.

Manchester City to Win and Both Teams to Score @ $3.75

City winning is the safe bet ahead of this clash, but the odds are pretty short. That's why I’m tacking in BTTS as well, which jacks up the odds to a healthy $3.75 at Sportaza. 

Newcastle have to throw the kitchen sink at them eventually, which usually leads to a goal at one end and a massive hole at the other. City haven’t been rock solid at the back lately, so I reckon Newcastle will find the net. But with the quality City have upfront, they’ll easily outscore them. $3.75 is an excellent price for what feels like the most likely outcome to me.