Premier League: Manchester City vs Nottingham Forest - Betting Tips, Odds & Prediction

Second-placed Manchester City welcome 17th-placed Nottingham Forest to the Etihad Stadium on Thursday morning New Zealand time in a Premier League fixture of title ambition and relegation anxiety.

City have won four straight in the league and sit five points off leaders Arsenal with 10 games to go. Forest, meanwhile, are just two points above the drop zone after losing three consecutive league matches. It’s safe to say the form gap between these two is about as big as it gets right now.

In this Man City vs Nottingham Forest preview, I dig into everything that matters from a betting perspective: the stats, injuries, and tactical angles that will dictate the outcome. Keep reading, as I’ve spotted a market paying $2.50 that football betting sites seem to have priced wrong.

Manchester City

City are on fire, and are playing the part of title chasers perfectly.

Four consecutive league wins, including a 2-1 comeback at Anfield and a professional 1-0 at Leeds last time out, have kept them firmly in the title conversation. They’ve conceded just two goals across those four matches, and at home they’ve won 11 of 14 league fixtures this season. The Etihad has been close to impenetrable, with just seven points dropped there all campaign.

Even without Haaland in their most recent outing, Antoine Semenyo stepped up and slotted the winner. That kind of depth is what separates City from most sides. Bernardo Silva and Rodri are brilliant in the midfield too, while Rayan Cherki has added creativity since his arrival.

Team News: Haaland is a doubt with a minor knee injury picked up in training and may be held back for the Champions League tie against Real Madrid. Gvardiol and Kovacic are long-term absentees. O’Reilly is also in doubt after limping off at Leeds.

Predicted Lineup: Donnarumma; Nunes, Dias, Guehi, Ait Nouri; Rodri; Cherki, Bernardo Silva, Reijnders; Semenyo, Marmoush.

Nottingham Forest

After a few years of punching above their weight, the fairytale is over and Nottingham Forest are in real trouble this season. 

Seven wins from 28 league games speaks for itself. Forest have scored just 25 goals this season - second-lowest tally in the division - and have conceded 39. Back-to-back Premier League defeats have left them clinging to 17th.

They do have some cause for confidence, though. In Europe, Forest beat Fenerbahce on aggregate to reach the Europa League last 16. Hopefully that fixture congestion won’t work against them here with a depleted squad. The best legal betting sites aren’t high on them performing here, with long odds for them to salvage any points.

Team News: Chris Wood, Willy Boly, Nicolo Savona, Matz Sels, and Murillo are all out. Stefan Ortega faces a late fitness test.

Predicted Lineup: Ortega; Aina, Milenkovic, Morato, Williams; Douglas Luiz, Anderson; Hudson-Odoi, Gibbs-White, Hutchinson; Igor Jesus.

• Man City have kept a clean sheet in five of their last six home matches against Nottingham Forest.
• City have won four straight EPL games, conceding just twice across that run.
• Man City have won five of the last six meetings between these sides across all competitions.
• Forest have scored 25 league goals in 28 games, the second-fewest in the division.

This match up looks one-sided on paper, and I think it’ll play out that way too.

City’s home record speaks for itself. They’ve dropped just seven points at the Etihad all season and they tend to suffocate teams who sit deep, with the passing quality of Bernardo, Rodri, and Cherki designed to unlock low blocks.

Forest will set up to contain and try to hit City on the counter through Igor Jesus and Hudson-Odoi. But their lack of goals this season makes it hard to see them troubling a defence that’s been rock solid all year.

I’m tipping a 2-0 City win. Even if Haaland doesn’t feature, Semenyo and Marmoush are enough. Forest’s squad is thin after a long European campaign, and fatigue could well be a factor. If you’ve got free bets to take advantage of, the play below is where I’d spend them.

Man City to Win to Nil @ $2.50

City have kept a clean sheet in five of their last six home meetings with Forest. They’ve conceded just two goals in four straight EPL wins. Forest, on the other hand, have scored just once in their last three league games and are without their top striker from last season in Chris Wood.

Forest’s goal output on the road against top-half sides has been dire. They’ve managed just seven goals in eight away fixtures against top-six opposition this campaign. Pair that with City’s defensive solidity at home, where they’ve conceded just 14 EPL goals all season, and the price for this market looks off.

$2.50 at 20Bet for a City clean sheet at the Etihad is generous, and I’m taking it all day.