Premier League: Manchester United vs Aston Villa - Betting Tips, Odds & Prediction

Manchester United and Aston Villa collide at Old Trafford on Monday morning New Zealand time in a Premier League fixture with big ramifications for the top-four race. 

Both sides are locked on 51 points - third and fourth, separated only by goal difference. The stakes couldn’t be much bigger with nine matches to go. Manchester United have had an 11-day break to stew on their loss at Newcastle, while Villa played Europa League football against Lille less than three days earlier. 

In this Manchester United vs Aston Villa preview, I dig into form, team news and the key tactical battles. For those keen on a punt, I’ve got a play combining two markets for odds above $3.50 on NZ betting sites.

Manchester United

Man U are six wins from eight under Michael Carrick, including the scalps of Arsenal and Manchester City in consecutive away and home fixtures. Their 2-1 defeat at St. James’ Park stung, especially after Newcastle went down to 10 men yet nicked a late winner. 

This side has scored 51 goals across 29 league matches: attack is not their problem.

At Old Trafford, their record reads nine wins, three draws and two losses this season. Bruno Fernandes has seven goals and his set-piece delivery gives United a constant aerial threat. Benjamin Sesko has been on a tear under Carrick with goals in three consecutive Premier League starts too.

Bryan Mbeumo had a shocker at Newcastle, though, completing zero dribbles and not contributing for large periods. Amad Diallo could get the nod if Carrick opts for a change there.

Team News: Dorgu and de Ligt are long-term absentees, while Martinez is out with a calf injury. Mazraoui trained this week and should be available. Mount is in doubt but could feature.

Predicted Lineup: Lammens; Mazraoui, Maguire, Yoro, Shaw; Casemiro, Mainoo; Amad, Fernandes, Cunha; Sesko.

Aston Villa

Villa have one Premier League win in their last five starts - and that was a scrappy 1-0 over Brighton a month ago. Since then it’s been ugly. A 1-1 draw with Leeds, a 2-0 blanking at Wolves, and a 4-1 hammering at home by Chelsea. Whatever momentum Villa built from their nine-game winning run earlier in the season has completely gone.

Thursday’s 1-0 win at Lille in the Europa League should help their mood, however. Ollie Watkins ended his goal drought with a brilliant header to give Villa a first-leg advantage. But the turnaround is tight, and the second leg against Lille next week will be on the minds of the squad too.

Villa won’t have Jadon Sancho, who’s ineligible against his parent club, so Morgan Rogers is the one United will need to watch. He scored both goals in their 2-1 win at Villa Park earlier this season and has 13 goal contributions so far this season.

Team News: Tielemans and Kamara are still out, while Cash, Elliott, and Garcia are also sidelined. McGinn returned for the Lille match, however, and should play here too.

Predicted Lineup: Martinez; Bogarde, Konsa, Torres, Digne; Luiz, Onana; Rogers, Buendia, Bailey; Watkins.

• Manchester United have won five straight home matches against Aston Villa across all competitions.
• Villa have taken one win from their last seven matches in all competitions heading into this fixture.
• The reverse fixture ended 2-1 to Villa at Villa Park, with Morgan Rogers scoring twice.
• Manchester United have scored in 17 consecutive Premier League games, their longest run since 2013.
• United have conceded in six of their last eight league outings, while Villa have conceded in seven of eight.

United should be fired up after losing to Newcastle. They’ve had time to prepare, and Old Trafford has been a strong ground all season. Villa, by contrast, are grinding through a brutal schedule with a squad missing key personnel.

That said, I don’t think Villa roll over. Watkins looked lively in Lille and Rogers has the quality to hurt anyone when given space. Villa’s counter-attacking game can cause problems, and United’s full-backs do push high.

I’m backing a United win, but I expect Villa to get a goal, 2-1 or 3-1. If you’re keen to get involved on betting apps in NZ for this one, the goals market is worth a look given how leaky both defences have been lately.

Manchester United to Win and Both Teams to Score @ $3.50

Villa have scored in seven of their last eight away Premier League games, and Rogers in particular has the quality to punish United’s high line. This isn’t a side that’ll sit scoreless for 90 minutes, even in poor form.

But United at home, rested, chasing a top-four spot and with 51 goals from 29 games - they’ll create enough to win this. Their 11-day break compared to Villa’s less than three days between matches should show up on the pitch. Tired legs concede goals.

At $3.50 for a result that looks highly plausible, I’m happy to back United to take the three points in a match where both sides find the net.