FA Cup: Manchester United vs Brighton – Betting Tips, Odds & Prediction

Bren Gray
By: Bren Gray
Football betting tips

FA Cup: Manchester United vs Brighton

Manchester United welcome Brighton to Old Trafford on Monday morning New Zealand time for a classic FA Cup fixture.

United are in a bit of a state right now after Ruben Amorim got the boot on Monday, leaving Darren Fletcher to hold the fort as the interim. They scraped a 2–2 draw at Burnley midweek, but that’ll do little to allay fans’ worries. Their opponents, meanwhile, are full of confidence after holding Manchester City to a draw. It’s safe to say they won’t be scared of a trip to Manchester right now.

I’ve looked into the latest stats and lineups to see where the value is ahead of this clash. United are always a lottery, but I’ve found a $4.50 play on betting sites in NZ that I’m happy to recommend heading into the weekend.

Manchester United vs Brighton Best Odds

Manchester United vs Brighton Analysis

Manchester United

There’s no denying United are unstable at the moment. It’s not like this is the first time they’ve sacked a manager mid-season. However, doing it on the cusp of the FA Cup’s third round is pretty chaotic even by their standards.

Leadership turmoil aside, missing Bruno Fernandes through injury is a massive blow for United too, given how reliant they’ve been on his creativity. With Bryan Mbeumo and Amad Diallo away at AFCON, they’re lacking real pace on the wings too. 

The only bright spark for the hosts is Benjamin Sesko, who nabbed two goals against Burnley and looks to be really hitting his stride. United’s success in this fixture pivots heavily around their ability to keep him involved - which will be tough, given how light they are in the midfield at the moment. 

That said, I’ve been checking out the latest football betting markets and the money is moving towards a tight game.

Team News: Fernandes and Matthijs de Ligt are out, while Mbeumo and Diallo are on international duty.

Predicted Lineup: Lammens; Dalot, Martinez, Heaven, Shaw; Casemiro, Ugarte; Dorgu, Cunha, Rashford; Sesko.

Brighton

Brighton come into this clash riding a wave of confidence, sitting 11th in the league and having just taken a point off City. They’re playing some risky football, but it’s been clicking the past few weeks. 

Kaoru Mitoma is the danger man here. He’s going to have a field day running at United’s fullbacks, and with Danny Welbeck always keen to score against his old club, they’ve got plenty of goal-scoring threats. Brighton are clinical, disciplined, and have a great record at Old Trafford recently. I reckon they’ll fancy their chances of an upset here.

Team News: Adam Webster, Solly March, and Mats Wieffer are out. Carlos Baleba is at AFCON.

Predicted Lineup: Verbruggen; Hinshelwood, Dunk, Van Hecke, De Cuyper; Gross, Ayari; Gomez, Mitoma, Kadioglu; Rutter.

Manchester United vs Brighton Stats and Trends

  • United won the last meeting 4–2 in October 2025.
  • Brighton haven’t lost away to United in three of their last four visits.
  • United are undefeated in their last four home matches across all competitions.
  • Brighton are winless in their last three away trips.

Manchester United vs Brighton Prediction

I’m leaning towards a United win here, but it’s going to be a stressful watch. There’s just something about this club and the FA Cup. Regardless of what’s going on behind the scenes, they somehow manage to show up for the cup. So if anything, the fact that things are chaotic for United at the moment only plays into our hands - I think betting apps are underpricing them.

Tactically, Sesko is the X-factor. He’s in the kind of form where everything he touches turns to gold. Brighton’s high defensive line is exactly the kind of setup he loves to exploit with his pace. 

Brighton will dominate the ball, no doubt about that, and they’ll carve United open a few times, but I reckon United will be more clinical on the break. Expect a high-energy game with plenty of chances at both ends, leading to a home win with a high goal count.

Manchester United vs Brighton - The Ultimate Bet

Manchester United to Win and BTTS @ $4.50

This bet is where the real money is. I can’t see a world where United keep a clean sheet against a side as organised as Brighton, especially with Mitoma running riot.

Still, United’s record at Old Trafford is strong, and they reliably find a way to outscore teams in cup ties. Combining a home win with both teams to score gives you a much better price than the straight win. 

A 2–1 or 3–2 result feels like the most likely outcome. It’s a bit of a gamble given the managerial chaos, but at $4.50 with Sportaza, it’s too good to ignore for a Monday morning punt.

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