Premier League: Newcastle vs Manchester United - Betting Tips, Odds & Prediction

Newcastle host Manchester United on Thursday morning New Zealand time at St. James’ Park that sees one of the form teams of the Premier League take on a side struggling to survive.

Third-placed Man United have won six of seven since Michael Carrick took charge, collecting 19 of a possible 21 points. Newcastle, by contrast, sit 13th and have lost five of their last six league games. The visitors are clear favourites, but Newcastle have won three of their last four meetings at this ground. Can they rouse that kind of form again?

I dig into this in my Newcastle vs Manchester United preview. From team news and stats to the latest odds on football betting sites, I’ve got you covered, including a $4.80 play on the BTTS market that I think is under-priced.

Newcastle

Newcastle’s Premier League campaign has gone south this year, big time.

Most alarming is their collapse at home: three consecutive defeats at St. James’ Park, conceding eight goals to Aston Villa, Brentford, and Everton. 

Without Bruno Guimaraes in midfield, Newcastle lack the composure and control that makes their system tick. They haven’t won a league match without him all season. Up front, Anthony Gordon has managed just three EPL goals from 38 shots - an 8% conversion rate.

That said, Newcastle have scored 2+ goals in each of their last three home league games. And against Man United specifically, they’ve won four of the last six meetings across all competitions.

Team News: Guimaraes, Schar, Livramento, Miley, and Krafth are all out. Jacob Ramsey is in doubt after feeling unwell against Everton. Sven Botman could come in for Dan Burn.

Predicted Lineup: Pope; Trippier, Thiaw, Botman, Hall; Tonali, Willock, Joelinton; Elanga, Woltemade, Gordon.

Manchester United

Man United are one of the hottest teams in the Premier League right now.

Bruno Fernandes has been outstanding, leading the league with 13 assists, while Bryan Mbeumo and Benjamin Sesko have combined for 17 goals. Man United are scoring regularly and, crucially, finding ways to grind out results even when they start poorly. Case in point: they’ve recovered nine points from losing positions this season, more than any other side.

Obviously their away record at St. James’ Park is of concern. They’ve lost on their last three trips here, which is why New Zealand betting sites have them as slight underdogs coming into this clash, despite the form gap.

Team News: Shaw and Maguire are both doubts after being substituted against Palace due to illness. De Ligt is out with a long-term back issue. Lisandro Martinez is close to returning from a calf problem. Mount could make the bench.

Predicted Lineup: Lammens; Dalot, Yoro, Maguire, Mazraoui; Casemiro, Mainoo; Mbeumo, Fernandes, Cunha; Sesko.

• Over 2.5 goals has landed in Newcastle’s last five Premier League matches.
• Man United are unbeaten in their last 11 consecutive Premier League games.
• Newcastle have won three of the last four meetings at St. James’ Park between these sides.
• Man United have scored 2+ goals in four of their last six league games.
• Newcastle have conceded in 19 of their last 21 PL matches.

Man United are the better side right now, but those who think that means this will be an easy win are sorely mistaken I feat.

Newcastle’s league form is dreadful, but their record against Man United at this ground can’t be ignored. The home crowd will be desperate, the players know they need a performance, and that combination tends to produce goals from the hosts. I’m backing Newcastle to score here.

Man United, though, should come away with the full three points. They’ve just got too many players in brilliant form: Fernandes is dictating games, Sesko is scoring freely, and the rest seem to genuinely believe they can win from any position.

I’m predicting a 2-3 away win. Newcastle will push hard and create chances, but Man United’s ability to absorb pressure and strike on the counter should prove decisive. If you’ve got betting promotions to use, the goals markets look the most attractive here given both sides’ attacking output and defensive vulnerability.

Manchester United to Win and Both Teams to Score @ $4.80

I’m backing Man United to get the job done, but not without conceding.

Newcastle have scored at least twice in each of their last three home EPL games, while four of the last six head-to-heads at St. James’ Park have seen both teams find the net. Even during their worst run of form, the goals keep coming. Man United, meanwhile, have conceded in four of their last six away matches.

Also, Man United have scored in 10 of their last 11 league games and have the individual quality through Fernandes, Sesko, and Mbeumo to punish Newcastle’s defence. Newcastle have kept just two clean sheets in 21 EPL games.

At $4.80 with Sportaza, you’re getting strong value for what I see as the most likely outcome of this match: a Man United win in a game where both teams get on the scoresheet.