Norway vs Sweden Prediction: Betting Tips & Odds

Norway and Sweden meet at Ullevaal Stadion in Oslo on Tuesday morning New Zealand time in a pre-World Cup friendly. Both sides will be using this as a final tune-up before heading to North America, but there’s some good football betting to be had too.

Norway stormed through qualifying with a perfect record - eight wins from eight and 37 goals scored. Sweden’s path was messier, bottom of their qualifying group before a dramatic playoff run under Graham Potter got them over the line.

In this Norway vs Sweden preview, I look at the key dynamics of a rivalry that always delivers when these two get together. I’ve got a goals angle worth looking at too.

Norway

I don’t think I’m going out on a limb by saying this is the most talented Norway squad in decades. 

Erling Haaland’s international record speaks for itself - 55 goals in 49 caps. Then you’ve got Martin Odegaard pulling the strings from midfield, and Alexander Sorloth coming off a strong season at Atletico Madrid. And don’t forget Oscar Bobb and Antonio Nusa offering pace off the bench.

Their qualifying campaign was dominant. Not a single defeat across eight matches, three put past Italy in Oslo and four away in the return. Friendly results in March were less convincing - a 2-1 loss to the Netherlands and a 0-0 with Switzerland.

This is a warm-up, so I’d expect rotation. But with the World Cup 10 days away, Solbakken won’t stray too far from his preferred XI.

Team News: Full World Cup squad available. No major injury concerns.

Predicted Lineup: Nyland; Ryerson, Ostigard, Strandberg, Meling; Berge, Patrick Berg; Bobb, Odegaard, Nusa; Haaland.

Sweden

Potter has done a solid job in a short time. Their qualifying group was a write-off - no wins, two points, bottom of the pile. But the playoff performances against Ukraine and Poland were outstanding. Viktor Gyokeres scored four across those two games, including an 88th-minute winner against Poland.

Alexander Isak’s fitness is the big question. He’s in the squad but has had a torrid season at Liverpool - broken leg in December, barely any goals or consistent game time since. Potter is hopeful of getting him into condition for the tournament, but that’s a big ask.

I wouldn’t write Sweden off here though. They’ve won their last two competitive games in dramatic fashion, and there’s a confidence in this group that goes past what the qualifying record suggests.

Team News: Kulusevski is ruled out through long-term injury. Isak is in the squad but his fitness is uncertain. Hien missed the playoff final against Poland with a thigh injury but has been named in the World Cup squad.

Predicted Lineup: Nordfeldt; Holm, Starfelt, Lagerbielke, Gudmundsson; Karlstrom, Ayari, Svensson; Nygren, Gyokeres, Elanga.

• Sweden lead the all-time head-to-head with 58 wins to Norway’s 24.
• Norway won the last meeting 3-2 in June 2022, Haaland scoring twice and assisting Sorloth.
• Norway scored 37 goals in eight World Cup qualifiers, the most in Europe.
• Sweden failed to win a single qualifying group game before their playoff surge.
• Gyokeres has 14 goals in his last 13 Sweden appearances.

I’m tipping Norway. Home advantage at Ullevaal counts for a lot here, and a squad riding that perfect qualifying campaign won’t want to let the momentum drop before the World Cup. Haaland in front of a Norwegian crowd with a point to prove is not an assignment any defence wants.

Sweden have playoff momentum, and I respect what Potter has done. But two months have passed since those games, and the squad has real question marks around fitness - Isak in particular. Their qualifying form was poor, and a couple of high-intensity playoff wins don’t erase that entirely.

My concern with Norway is that friendlies can be flat, and Solbakken might rotate more than expected. But even a rotated Norway side has serious quality in attack.

For those checking betting promotions before the World Cup window opens, the goals markets are where I’d be looking here.

Norway to Win and Both Teams to Score @ $4.20

Norway will control this at home, with a crowd desperate to send them off in style. I expect Haaland and Odegaard to start, and when those two are on the pitch together, goals tend to follow.

But Sweden will score. Gyokeres is in sensational form for his country, and Anthony Elanga has been a constant threat on the left. BTTS has been a feature of recent meetings - both scored when Norway won 3-2 in 2022, and both scored in their prior Nations League encounter too.

At $4.20, I’m backing a Norway win with goals at both ends on the best betting sites NZ has available right now.