UEFA Champions League: PSG vs Chelsea - Betting Tips, Odds & Prediction

The Champions League Round of 16 delivers an absolute banger with PSG taking on Chelsea at the Parc des Princes on Thursday morning New Zealand time. 

There’s plenty of bad blood between these two sides, and we love to see it. Chelsea thumped PSG 3-0 in last year’s Club World Cup Final - the defending Champions League holders won’t have forgotten that. Throw in the fact PSG just got beaten 3-1 at home by Monaco in Ligue 1 and they’re a side desperate for redemption.

I go through all you need to know in this PSG vs Chelsea preview below with team news, stats and odds on football betting sites. I’ve also spotted a BTTS-related play sitting around $3.80 that looks appealing given both sides’ attacking firepower.

PSG

PSG sit top of Ligue 1 with 57 points from 25 matches, but there are cracks forming.

That home defeat to Monaco was ugly. Warren Zaire-Emery’s error gifted the opener, and the whole defensive unit looked rattled from there. It’s PSG’s fourth league loss of the campaign, and the second time Monaco have beaten them domestically this season. 

In Europe, PSG finished outside the top eight in the league phase and had to grind through a two-leg playoff against Monaco, winning 5-4 on aggregate. Their attacking talent is obvious, but midfield is where things get thin. Joao Neves and Fabian Ruiz are both ruled out, which leaves Vitinha and Zaire-Emery with a lot to do on their own.

Team News: Neves and Ruiz are injured and unavailable. Dembele is fit after returning against Monaco. Marquinhos could come back into the starting defence.

Predicted Lineup: Safonov; Hakimi, Marquinhos, Pacho, Mendes; Zaire-Emery, Vitinha, Doue; Dembele, Barcola, Kvaratskhelia.

Chelsea

Chelsea are fifth in the Premier League with 48 points, three behind fourth-placed Aston Villa.

Their form under Liam Rosenior has been solid, with three wins from their last four across all competitions. They did lose to Arsenal a week ago, but they was mostly on their own terms - they played a good chunk of the match with 10 men.

Unlike PSG, Chelsea bypassed the Champions League playoffs entirely, finishing sixth in the league phase. That extra rest matters heading into a gruelling March schedule.

Team News: Estevao is a major doubt with a hamstring problem. Colwill and Bynoe-Gittens are out long-term. Fofana should be available after resting in the FA Cup, and Cucurella is expected to return too.

Predicted Lineup: Jorgensen; James, Chalobah, Hato, Cucurella; Caicedo, Fernandez; Neto, Palmer, Garnacho; Pedro.

• Across nine competitive meetings, PSG and Chelsea have each won three with three draws.
• Chelsea won the most recent meeting 3-0 in last year’s Club World Cup Final.
• PSG have conceded in eight of their last 10 Champions League matches.
• Chelsea have scored 14 goals across their last five matches in all competitions.
• Both teams scored in four of the last five competitive PSG home games against Chelsea.

PSG’s midfield is weakened without Neves and Ruiz. Vitinha is class, but Zaire-Emery’s decision-making has been dodgy lately, as we saw against Monaco. Chelsea’s press, led by Moises Caicedo and Enzo Fernandez, should be able to exploit that gap. Palmer thrives between the lines and I reckon he’ll find room to operate.

The Parc des Princes is hostile, though. Kvaratskhelia and Barcola are a handful out wide, capable of stretching any back line, and Dembele off the bench (or starting) adds yet more speed to an already rapid front line. 

Chelsea’s discipline is a worry too. Seven red cards in the Premier League this season - you can’t be pulling that sort of stuff in a Champions League knockout tie.

I’m leaning 2-1 PSG. Home advantage and the raw emotion of needing to avenge last year’s Club World Cup humiliation should tip it. Chelsea will score, I’m fairly confident of that, but I don’t think they leave with a result. I’d suggest that those on NZ betting apps should focus on the goals markets here.

PSG Win and Both Teams to Score @ $3.80

I keep landing on the same conclusion: both of these sides leak goals and score freely.

PSG have conceded in eight of their last 10 European outings. Chelsea have put away 14 across their last five fixtures. In four of the last five competitive home meetings between these two, both teams found the net. Need I say more?

I will: PSG’s front line is too loaded to be shut out at home, and Chelsea’s trio of Palmer, Pedro and Alejandro Garnacho have the quality to hurt anyone, anywhere. 

At $3.80, a PSG win with both teams scoring is big value. The hosts should edge it with the crowd behind them, but Chelsea have more than enough to get on the scoresheet. Worth a look if you’ve got free bets to use.