UEFA Nations League: Spain vs France - Betting Tips, Odds & Prediction

Spain and France are set to fight for the final spot in the 2024/25 UEFA Nations League final when the two teams meet in the second semi-final of the competition in Stuttgart this Friday. 

The best New Zealand betting sites had these two pinned down as favourites to lift the trophy, but now one of them must bow out before the final showdown at Allianz Arena on Monday. Who will it be?

Go through our detailed Spain vs France preview as we build up to this highly anticipated clash and break down where the betting value is with our football tips today.

Spain

Luis de la Fuente’s Spain stumbled out of the gates with a 2-0 loss to Scotland at Hampden. However, a golden run soon followed as La Roja took the 2022/23 UEFA Nations League trophy home only a few months later. Last summer, they cruised to Euro 2024 glory, and now they are only two matches away from enjoying back-to-back European success. 

Many tipsters consider Spain one of the safest teams when it comes to placing a bet on football’s international competitions. Even against a powerhouse like France, they enter the fray as favourites. 

Most recently, the side battled through a thrilling quarter-final against the Netherlands, drawing 2-2 in Amsterdam and 3-3 in a wild return leg in Valencia, before clinching a 5-4 victory in a tense penalty shootout.

Team News: Isco returns to the Spain squad for the first time in six years. Gavi makes his first appearance since 2023, and Pau Cubarsi returns from injury.

Predicted Lineup: Simon; Porro, Huijsen, Le Normand, Cucurella; Pedri, Zubimendi, Olmo; Yamal, Morata, Williams.

France 

French manager Didier Deschamps plans to stay until the 2026 World Cup, but growing fan frustration suggests they’d welcome change sooner. Les Bleus have stagnated in recent months, so Deschamps faces a monumental challenge ahead of him to turn the tide. 

France’s route to the semi-finals was far from smooth. A bruising 2-0 defeat in Zagreb threatened to derail their campaign, but redemption came in Paris. The two-time European champions clawed their way back with a 2-0 win and then sealed the tie with a 5-4 win on penalties.

Team News: Kylian Mbappe is set to spearhead France’s attack, while Lyon playmaker Rayan Cherki could be in line for his senior debut. Meanwhile, injuries have sidelined William Saliba, Eduardo Camavinga, Dayot Upamecano, and Jules Kounde.

Predicted Lineup: Maignan; Pavard, Konate, Lenglet, Hernandez; Warren Zaire-Emery, Tchouameni, Guendouzi; Olise, Dembele, Mbappe.

• Spain and France have traded wins in each of their last four encounters.
• These two teams have met only once before in the UEFA Nations League—in the 2021 final, where France claimed a 2-1 victory.
• Both teams have scored in the last two Spain vs France games, however only one scored in the previous three before that.
• The last five Spain vs France games have only seen 10 goals. 

Spain are likely to set the tone in the midfield with their incredible technical quality. In-form winger Lamine Yamal could be key to unlocking the French back line, especially down the right flank if Theo Hernandez leaves space behind on his overlapping runs.

France remain a potent threat on the counter, with Mbappe and Dembele expected to exploit Spain’s vulnerable right flank.Taking advantage of these moments could break Spain’s grip on the game.

This semi-final feels like it will have the intensity of the two side’s EURO 2024 semi-final showdown. We expect both to find the net in a close clash, but give the advantage to Spain. With their impressive form and midfield dominance, we’re picking the hosts to sneak into the final.

Spain 2-1 France @ 10.00 

PlayUp prices a 2-1 win for Spain at $10. This has not been a high-scoring matchup in the past. While both teams are expected to score, the match is unlikely to go beyond a 2-1 scoreline—just as it did the last two times.