Spain vs Iraq Football Prediction & Odds

Spain welcome Iraq to Estadio Riazor in La Coruna on Friday morning New Zealand time in their first of two warm-up matches before the World Cup kicks off.

Spain won Euro 2024 and went to the Nations League final last year. Iraq are at a World Cup for the first time since 1986. In this Spain vs Iraq preview, I look at how both sides are shaping up ahead of the tournament.

I’ve got a goals-market price at $2.20 that I’ll break down for those checking the best betting apps this week.

Spain

I’d normally break down form here, but Spain’s recent record speaks for itself. Beat Serbia 3-0 in March - Mikel Oyarzabal with a brace - then drew 0-0 with Egypt after rotating. Before that, four past Georgia and four past Bulgaria in qualifying. And that 5-4 Nations League semi-final win over France last June. Thirteen scored and two conceded in their last five.

Who plays is what interests me. 

Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams both have fitness doubts from long club seasons. Mikel Merino is in a similar position, and De la Fuente has said he doesn’t expect them to be fully available until the Cape Verde opener on June 15. Rodri made his first Spain start since 2024 against Serbia in March, and his minutes will be managed carefully. I’d expect a mixed side - enough quality to overwhelm Iraq, but not the strongest XI.

For the first time in World Cup history, there are no Real Madrid players in a Spain squad. Yet it hasn’t weakened them one bit.

Team News: Yamal, Williams, and Merino are fitness doubts. Fermin Lopez is ruled out with a broken foot. Rodri is available but may get limited minutes.

Predicted Lineup: Simon; Porro, Laporte, Cubarsi, Cucurella; Pedri, Zubimendi; Pino, Baena, Olmo; Oyarzabal.

Iraq

Iraq qualified for the World Cup by beating Bolivia 2-1 in the intercontinental playoff final in March. Ali Al-Hamadi headed them in front in the 10th minute before Aymen Hussein scored the winner in the 53rd, in what was a massive moment for a nation that hasn’t appeared at a World Cup since Mexico 1986.

Their warm-up form hasn’t convinced me though. A 1-0 win over Andorra in Girona four days ago was sluggish - Ali Yousif’s 19th-minute goal the only breakthrough against a side ranked 173rd. Graham Arnold has assembled his squad from clubs across Europe and Asia. Al-Hamadi is on loan at Luton from Ipswich, and Zidane Iqbal - formerly of Manchester United - plays for Utrecht in the Netherlands.

I’m curious about Arnold’s tactical approach here. If Iraq drop deep and frustrate Spain, they might limit the damage. If they try to play openly, the quality gap will be exposed fast.

Team News: Arnold has no major injury concerns. He’s expected to field close to his strongest XI given this is their biggest test before the World Cup.

Predicted Lineup: Jalal Hassan; Mustafa Saadoon, Rebin Sulaka, Zaid Tahseen, Hussein Ali; Ibrahim Bayesh, Amir Al-Ammari; Ali Jassim, Zidane Iqbal, Youssef Amyn; Aymen Hussein.

• This is the first ever meeting between Spain and Iraq.
• Spain are unbeaten in their last five, scoring 13 and conceding two.
• Iraq won both of their 2026 fixtures - Bolivia 2-1 and Andorra 1-0.
• Spain drew 0-0 in their most recent friendly against Egypt.
• Iraq managed just one goal against Andorra, ranked 173rd.

I can’t see anything other than a comfortable Spain win here. 

Even with rotation, their depth is frightening - Dani Olmo and Pedri would stroll into most World Cup sides. Iraq will be organised under Arnold, who knows defensive setups from his years with Australia, but the technical gap is too wide.

The friendly context does give me pause though. De la Fuente won’t want anyone picking up injuries 11 days from their World Cup opener. Substitutions will come early, and the intensity won’t match a competitive fixture. That might limit the margin.

I’m going with 3-0 Spain. From NZ, the match result at $1.10 isn’t worth touching. Focus on the clean sheet angle.

Spain to Win to Nil @ $2.20

Iraq struggled to break down Andorra just four days ago. Against a Spanish defence anchored by Aymeric Laporte and Pau Cubarsi, I don’t see where their goal comes from.

Spain have conceded just two goals in five matches. Arnold will prioritise caution over chasing an unlikely result, which plays right into a Spain clean sheet.

At $2.20, it’s a price I’m happy to back on the legal betting sites available in New Zealand.