Champions League: Sporting CP vs Arsenal - Betting Tips, Odds & Prediction

Arsenal travel to Lisbon to face Sporting CP on Wednesday morning New Zealand time in the first leg of their Champions League quarter-final. In this Sporting CP vs Arsenal preview, I’m digging into how both sides have looked recently. The Gyokeres angle adds a whole extra layer too. I’ve spotted a combined market above $3.50 on NZ betting sites that I think has real legs.

Arsenal are reeling. The Carabao Cup final defeat to Manchester City ended their treble bid, and Saturday’s 2-1 loss at Southampton in the FA Cup quarters wiped out any remaining cup hopes. They still lead the Premier League by nine points, but there’s a wobble here.

Sporting, on the other hand, haven’t lost at home in the Champions League this season. They’ve beaten PSG and Club Brugge at the Jose Alvalade, and their 5-0 extra-time demolition of Bodo/Glimt after going down 3-0 on aggregate was one of the great European comebacks.

Sporting CP

Sporting have scored 15 goals in their last three matches. Luis Suarez has 24 league goals this season, four in his last three home games. Francisco Trincao has 10 assists in Liga Portugal. Maximiliano Araujo has been a force on the left since January.

They’re second in the Portuguese league, with just one defeat all season. But Arsenal thumped them 5-1 here in the league phase last November. That will linger.

Team News: Morten Hjulmand is suspended. Nuno Santos is out with a thigh injury. Geovany Quenda and Luis Guilherme are also sidelined. Diomande and Inacio were both rested at the weekend.

Predicted Lineup: Rui Silva; Fresneda, Diomande, Inacio, Araujo; Simoes, Morita; Catamo, Trincao, Pote; Suarez.

Arsenal

Two cup exits in a fortnight: that’s been the story of Arsenal. Gabriel limped off at Southampton with a knee injury, adding to an already stretched squad. Eberechi Eze is out with a calf problem. Piero Hincapie picked up a muscle issue on international duty, and Mikel Merino won’t play again this season.

The Champions League has been different for Arsenal, though. They’re unbeaten in the competition, just five goals conceded in 10 games. Saka and Rice were rested on Saturday alongside Trossard. Timber missed with a groin issue but is pushing to be involved.

Then there’s Viktor Gyokeres - 97 goals in 102 Sporting appearances before forcing his move to Arsenal last summer. The reception in Lisbon won’t be warm.

Team News: Gabriel is a major doubt. Eze is out. Hincapie and Merino are also unavailable. Saka and Rice should both return, with Trossard also expected. Timber is pushing to be involved after a groin issue.

Predicted Lineup: Raya; White, Saliba, Calafiori, Timber; Zubimendi, Rice; Saka, Havertz, Trossard; Gyokeres.

• Sporting have won all five home Champions League matches this season. PSG and Club Brugge both lost at the Jose Alvalade.
• Arsenal are unbeaten in the first leg of their last eight Champions League knockout ties (W3, D5).
• The last meeting between these sides ended 5-1 to Arsenal in Lisbon during last season’s league phase.
• Sporting have scored in nine of their last 10 Champions League fixtures.
• Arsenal have conceded just five goals in 10 Champions League games this season.

I’m backing Arsenal, but I don’t think it’ll be straightforward. Sporting’s home record in this competition is no joke. Suarez is in the form of his life, and the Jose Alvalade will be hostile. But Hjulmand’s suspension weakens the midfield spine, and I reckon that’s where this gets decided.

Arsenal’s big players turn up in Europe. Rice and Saka save their best for these nights. Gyokeres will be desperate to score on his return. Arteta held his first-choice XI back on Saturday - that’s all you need to know about where his head’s at.

I’m tipping 2-1 Arsenal. Sporting will score - they always do at home in this competition - but Arsenal’s defensive record in the Champions League is exactly the sort of platform you want for a game like this. If you’re looking at football betting sites for this fixture, the goals market is where I’d focus.

Arsenal to Win and Both Teams to Score @ $3.60

Sporting have scored at least twice in each of their last five home UCL matches. Suarez has four goals across his last three home games. With Hjulmand out, there’s less protection in front of the back four.

Arsenal have looked a completely different side in this competition. Five goals conceded across 10 games. Saka and Gyokeres are both available, Trossard too - they’ve got the firepower to punish a Sporting defence that leaked two to Santa Clara on Friday.

At $3.60, I’m backing Arsenal in a game where both sides find the net. Sporting won’t roll over at home, but if you’re browsing betting apps NZ for this one, Arsenal’s Champions League pedigree should be the difference.