FIFA World Cup Qualifying: Sweden vs Poland - Betting Tips, Odds & Prediction

Sweden and Poland go head to head at the Strawberry Arena in Solna on Wednesday morning New Zealand time in the FIFA World Cup 2026 European qualifying playoff final.

Four years ago, Poland broke Swedish hearts in an almost identical situation, winning 2-0 in Chorzow. Robert Lewandowski and Piotr Zielinski scored that day. Just days ago, the duo did the same thing against Albania. Sweden will be desperate for payback - and Viktor Gyokeres, fresh off a hat-trick against Ukraine, gives them every reason to believe.

In this Sweden vs Poland preview, I look at form and injuries before landing on a goals market angle above $3.50 on football betting sites.

Sweden

Sweden’s qualifying campaign was a disaster. Zero wins from six in Group B, with just four goals scored, and 12 conceded. They came last in the group behind Switzerland, Kosovo and Slovenia, and only got here through the backdoor after winning their Nations League group.

Graham Potter inherited this mess in October. Results didn’t improve immediately - a 0-2 home loss to Switzerland, 0-1 to Kosovo, a 4-1 hammering in Basel, then a 1-1 draw with Slovenia to close the group. But their 3-1 semi-final win over Ukraine changed everything. Gyokeres grabbed all three, taking him to 12 goals in his last 11 internationals. Without Alexander Isak and Dejan Kulusevski, the creative burden falls almost entirely on him and Yasin Ayari.

Team News: Isak and Kulusevski are long-term absentees, along with Krafth. Isak Hien was forced off against Ukraine and is ruled out. Gabriel Gudmundsson is a doubt after also going off, with Daniel Svensson on standby.

Predicted Lineup: Nordfeldt; Lagerbielke, Starfelt, Lindelof; Johansson, Karlstrom, Ayari, Svensson; Elanga, Nygren; Gyokeres.

Poland

Poland are in red-hot form. Jan Urban’s been in charge for seven games and hasn’t lost one, with five wins, and two draws. Their comeback against Albania was excellent - they went behind, stayed patient, then levelled from a corner before Zielinski added the icing on the cake.

Their qualifying record tells a different story to Sweden’s. Five wins and two draws across Group G - both draws against the Netherlands, who topped the group. One defeat, away to Finland. They should’ve gone through automatically.

Lewandowski is 37 and he’s still brilliant. He was clever with his movement against Albania, finding pockets and dragging centre-backs out of position. Zielinski pulls strings from midfield. Cash and Kiwior give them a solid defensive core, and Nicola Zalewski returns from suspension to boost their options out wide.

Team News: No fresh injury concerns. Zalewski returns from a semi-final ban. All players available.

Predicted Lineup: Grabara; Kedziora, Bednarek, Kiwior; Cash, Slisz, Zielinski, Zalewski; Szymanski, Skoras; Lewandowski.

• Sweden haven’t lost a home match against Poland since 1930, winning in Solna in 1999, 2003 and 2004.
• Poland are unbeaten in seven matches under Jan Urban.
• Sweden scored three goals against Ukraine after managing only four across their entire qualifying group stage.
• 16 of the 28 historical meetings between these nations have seen both teams score.

Home advantage is critical in this clash. Poland’s record in Sweden is awful over the past century, and there’s a reason the bookmakers have Sweden as slight favourites even with all their injuries.

But I can’t look past Poland’s squad depth and current form. Lewandowski and Zielinski turn up in these matches - they’ve proved that twice in four days. Sweden, on the other hand, are asking Gyokeres to carry everything.

I’m tipping Sweden to edge it, 2-1 or maybe even through extra time. Both sides will score. If you’re looking at football betting sites for this one, there’s better value in the goals market than picking an outright winner given how tight this should be.

Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5 Goals @ $3.50

Gyokeres has 12 goals in 11 internationals. Lewandowski scored the crucial equaliser against Albania and netted in the 2022 playoff win over Sweden too. These aren’t sides that’ll keep each other quiet for 90 minutes.

Sweden scored three against Ukraine after looking toothless for months. Poland have scored in six of their last seven matches. The head-to-head backs this up too - 16 of 28 all-time meetings saw both sides find the net.

At $3.50, this is the play for me. High stakes produce open football, and there are goals in this game on best betting sites NZ.