FA Cup: Tottenham vs Aston Villa – Betting Tips, Odds & Prediction

North London plays host to a massive FA Cup battle this Sunday morning. Tottenham are staring down the barrel of another trophyless season unless they can find a way past a clinical Aston Villa side. It’s a huge morning for the home fans, but I’ve got a feeling the visitors might just ruin the party and send the locals home early.

Tottenham are in a proper rut, with an injury list that’s starting to be a joke. Since Thomas Frank took over, they’ve struggled for consistency, and without their main creative sparks, they’ve looked a bit lost lately. On the other side, Aston Villa are flying under the radar as one of the most disciplined units in the country. 

I’ve crunched the numbers and looked at the match ups to figure out where the value is. Read on for a full breakdown, including a spicy $4.50 play for anyone keen on some football betting this weekend.

Tottenham

I won’t beat around the bush: Tottenham look awful at the moment. 

Losing James Maddison and Dejan Kulusevski at the same time is a nightmare, but the AFCON situation is what really kills them. Missing both Yves Bissouma and Pape Sarr to international duty leaves a massive hole in the engine room. They’ve been playing a style under Thomas Frank that requires high intensity, but right now, I just don’t think they’ve got the squad depth to pull it off.

They’ll be leaning heavily on Son to produce a bit of magic, but he’s looked isolated in recent weeks. Dominic Solanke has returned to light training, which is a boost, but he’s a major doubt to start. If he doesn’t make it, Ollie Watkins is going to have a field day. I’ve been keeping an eye on the NZ betting apps users rate most, and the money seems to be moving away from a home win.

Team News: Maddison, Kulusevski, Destiny Udogie, and Mohammed Kudus are out. Dominic Solanke is a major doubt. Bissouma and Sarr are at AFCON.

Predicted Lineup: Vicario; Porro, Romero, van de Ven, Davies; Bentancur, Gray, Bergvall; Odobert, Richarlison, Son.

Aston Villa

In stark contrast to their opponents, Villa are a well-oiled machine at the moment. 

Unai Emery has them so well-drilled that they know exactly how to sit deep and then explode on the break, which is the worst possible style for Tottenham to face. They’ve already beaten Tottenham three times in a row, including a 2–1 win earlier this season, so the psychological edge is firmly with the visitors too.

I expect them to let Tottenham have the ball for long periods and then punish them the second a pass goes astray. They’re clinical, they’re disciplined, and they’ve got a point to prove in the cup this year.

Team News: Amadou Onana, Ross Barkley, and Evann Guessand are out. Pau Torres and Tyrone Mings are late fitness tests.

Predicted Lineup: Martinez; Cash, Konsa, Carlos, Maatsen; Kamara, Tielemans; McGinn, Rogers, Buendia; Watkins.

• Aston Villa have taken the spoils in their last three meetings with Tottenham.
• Tottenham haven’t kept a clean sheet in eight games across all competitions.
• Aston Villa have scored two or more goals in four of their last five away trips.
• This is a rematch of last year’s fourth-round tie where Aston Villa won 2–1.

I’m picking an Aston Villa win here, and I don’t think it’ll be particularly pretty for the Tottenham fans either. When you’ve got a team that’s missing its best players going up against a side that has beaten them three times in a row, there’s usually only one result. 

Tottenham will probably have more of the ball, but Aston Villa will have the better chances. I reckon it’ll be close for the first hour, but once the legs get heavy, the visitors’ bench and tactical setup will take over. 

I’m leaning toward a 2–1 or 3–1 scoreline for the visitors. If you’re planning on a bet, check out some of these free sports bet promotions to get more bang for your buck.

Aston Villa to Win and BTTS @ $4.50

This is my lock for the weekend. Tottenham are at home and they’re desperate, so they’ll likely scrap their way to a goal at some point, probably through a bit of individual brilliance from Son or Richarlison. But Aston Villa are simply the better team right now. They’ll find the gaps in the Tottenham defence and exploit them all day. At $4.50 with Bet and Play, this is the best value you’ll find for this fixture.