UEFA Champions League: Club Brugge vs Atletico Madrid - Betting Tips, Odds & Prediction

Thursday morning New Zealand time sees Club Brugge host Atletico Madrid in the first leg of their UEFA Champions League playoff at Jan Breydel Stadium in Bruges.

Club Brugge are riding a wave of domestic form, while Atletico arrive dealing with an ugly 3-0 loss to Rayo Vallecano at the weekend. However, both sides fell short of automatic qualification for the last 16, finishing 19th and 14th respectively in the league phase. That makes this tie critical. 

I’ve gone through form, stats and team news to put together this Club Brugge vs Atletico Madrid preview. From key player matchups to tactical breakdowns, everything you need is below, including a $3.60 bet for those hunting value on football betting sites.

Club Brugge

Don’t sleep on Club Brugge.

The side have won four of their last five matches across all competitions, including a gutsy 2-1 away derby win over Cercle Brugge on Saturday. The Jan Breydel Stadium is a tough place for anyone to visit, and their fans will certainly up for a Champions League knockout match under the lights.

Brugge’s UCL campaign was mixed, with three wins and four defeats from eight league phase games. Across these, Hans Vanaken has been key, with five goal involvements in his eight UCL games this season. Carlos Forbs has the ability to provide a bit of magic too, scoring twice against Barcelona earlier in their campaign. 

The big concern is their injury list, however, with up to half a dozen starters missing for this clash.

Team News: Vermant, Reis, Sandra and Spileers are injured. Van den Heuvel and Audoor are doubts.

Predicted Lineup: Mignolet; Sabbe, Mechele, Ordonez, Seys; Onyedika, Stankovic, Vanaken; Forbs, Tresoldi, Tzolis.

Atletico Madrid

Atletico are a hard team to read right now.

One week they’re hammering Barcelona 4-0 in the Copa del Rey, the next they’re getting thumped 3-0 by Rayo Vallecano. This kind of inconsistency has been the story of their season. In the UCL league phase, they’ve scored 17 goals but conceded 15 across eight matches - not the kind of defensive numbers they used to post.

Julian Alvarez is their danger man. He’s got four UCL goals this campaign and 14 in the competition since signing. Ademola Lookman adds quality and pace in the final third too, while Alexander Sorloth offers something different with his physicality.

My worry for Atletico is their away record in Europe: one win, one draw and two defeats. That’s why the best betting apps have them priced at a conservative $1.90 heading into this one.

Team News: Pablo Barrios and Johnny Cardoso are out. Nicolas Gonzalez is a doubt.

Predicted Lineup: Oblak; Molina, Hancko, Pubill, Ruggeri; Llorente, Koke; Lookman, Giuliano Simeone, Griezmann; Alvarez.

• Club Brugge are unbeaten in their last three meetings with Atletico Madrid, including a 2-0 win in October 2022.
• Atletico Madrid have won just one of their four away UCL matches this season.
• Both teams scored in seven of Atletico Madrid’s eight Champions League league phase matches.
• Club Brugge have scored in each of their last 17 Champions League second halves.

There will be goals, whichever way you look at it.

Club Brugge’s record at home is strong and the atmosphere there can be intimidating. They certainly have the talent to cause Atletico problems, and will have the psychological edge too, having not lost to Atletico in their last three head-to-head meetings. 

Atletico, for all their stars, look vulnerable on the road. One win from four away European games is a poor return, and their recent defeat to Rayo Vallecano will have shaken some confidence. Still, Alvarez, Griezmann and Lookman are capable of punishing any defensive lapse, and Atletico tend to perform when the pressure ramps up in knockout football.

My big picture prediction is that Atletico will nick it, but only just. A tight 1-2 away win is my call, with Club Brugge grabbing a goal to keep the tie alive for the return leg.

Draw @ $3.60

Hear me out: I’m going against my own prediction here, but for good reason.

Atletico’s away record in Europe is poor and they’re coming off a 3-0 loss. Club Brugge are unbeaten in three against them and have a superb home record. But neither side will want to risk too much in a first leg with everything still to play for at the Metropolitano.

The stats back it up. Both teams have been scoring freely in the UCL, but first legs of knockout ties often produce cagey affairs. A 1-1 feels like a natural result here. Atletico get the away goal they need, Club Brugge keep the tie alive, and everybody heads to Madrid with everything to play for. 

On balance, an Atletico win is more likely, but with a draw paying $3.60, I think there’s value in hedging with this bet as well. Keep an eye on some of the promos we have listed on our home page, as a few free bets either way would be the perfect situation.