UEFA Champions League: Real Madrid vs Benfica - Betting Tips, Odds & Prediction

The second leg of this UEFA Champions League playoff between Real Madrid and Benfica at the Santiago Bernabeu on Thursday morning NZT could be one of the ties of the round.

These two have already met twice this season and produced wildly different results: a 4-2 win to Benfica in the league phase and a cagey 1-0 Real Madrid victory in Lisbon just days ago. With Benfica needing at least one goal here, I expect this match to open up and be more like their former meeting. 

In this Real Madrid vs Benfica preview, I breakdown all the latest team news, form, stats, and deliver my case for a value play north of $3.50 for those hunting a return on football betting sites this week.

Real Madrid

Four wins from five is hard to argue with, but the trouble is that Real Madrid’s single loss is fresh.

The club went down 2-1 at Osasuna on Saturday after conceding a late winner, which snapped an eight-game La Liga winning streak. The defeat could have big ramifications as it puts Barcelona in prime position to grab top spot. 

There were positives still, as Vinicius Jr scored for the fourth consecutive match. He’s been the best player in Europe over the past fortnight, with a curling strike in Lisbon to win the first leg that was absolutely breath-taking.

My big concern is Real Madrid’s mounting injury toll. They’re missing a lot of quality in key areas, with Jude Bellingham, Rodrygo, Eder Militao, and Dean Huijsen all out. 

Team News: Bellingham and Rodrygo are out with hamstring injuries. Militao and Huijsen are also unavailable. David Alaba could return to the backline alongside Rudiger.

Predicted Lineup: Courtois; Carvajal, Rudiger, Alaba, Carreras; Tchouameni, Valverde, Camavinga; Guler; Vinicius, Mbappe.

Benfica

Benfica bounced back well from their first-leg defeat, thumping AVS 3-0 at the Estadio da Luz on Saturday.

They’re unbeaten in the Portuguese league all season and have racked up 49 goals across all competitions domestically. Vangelis Pavlidis in particular has nine Champions League goals and scored twice in that famous 4-2 win over Real Madrid in January. 

But Benfica’s away record in Europe is patchy. That’s a concern, given the Bernabeu is about as tough as it gets. They’ll also be without Gianluca Prestianni through suspension, which limits their options on the wing. 

Team News: Prestianni is suspended. Samuel Soares and Joao Veloso are injured. Aursnes and Rios are fit.

Predicted Lineup: Trubin; Dedic, Araujo, Otamendi, Dahl; Aursnes, Barreiro; Sudakov, Rafa Silva, Schjelderup; Pavlidis.

• Real Madrid have scored in 11 consecutive official matches away and at home combined.
• Benfica have won two of the last three meetings between these sides (4-2 and 1-0 from Real Madrid).
• Over 2.5 goals has landed in two of the three head-to-head fixtures this season.
• Mbappe has 13 goals in seven UCL appearances this campaign.
• Benfica are unbeaten in 23 Liga Portugal matches this season but have lost three of five away UCL games.

Benfica have no choice but to attack here, and that plays directly into Real Madrid’s hands. There’s a reason betting apps have them as comfortable favourites.

The Mbappe-Vinicius partnership has been devastating, particularly on the counter. With Benfica needing to push forward from the start, there’ll be space in behind for both players to exploit. 

That said, I don’t think Benfica just roll over if they concede another. Pavlidis is a genuine goal threat, Schjelderup caused problems in the first leg, and Mourinho’s sides historically travel well in knockout football. I can see Benfica grabbing a goal or two, but Real Madrid should still get through.

Real Madrid to Win and Both Teams to Score @ $3.60

I’m tipping a Real Madrid win in a match that produces goals at both ends, given both sides have the attacking talent to score.

Benfica have to score to stay and they’ve got the tools to do it. Pavlidis and Schjelderup have both found the net against Real Madrid this season, and with the hosts missing key defenders, there are goals to be had. But asking Benfica to keep Real Madrid quiet at the Bernabeu for 90 minutes is a massive ask.

In the three meetings between these two this season, both teams have scored in two of them, and the one exception was a tight, cagey first leg. This second leg won’t be cagey. Benfica need goals and Real Madrid will punish them for pushing up.

Getting $3.60 for a home win with both teams scoring is great value on NZ betting sites, considering the context of this tie and the attacking quality of both sides.