FIFA World Cup Qualifying: Ukraine vs Sweden - Betting Tips, Odds & Prediction

Ukraine and Sweden meet in Valencia on Friday morning New Zealand time in a FIFA World Cup qualifying playoff semi-final with everything on the line. 

One match, no second leg - the winner faces Poland or Albania on Tuesday for a ticket to North America. 

In this Ukraine vs Sweden preview, I break down both squads and their crippling injury lists before landing on a goals market play at around $1.75 on NZ betting sites.

Ukraine

Ukraine took second in Group D behind France with 10 points from six. Their 5-3 win in Iceland was the standout - wild, open, and a fair reflection of this side’s character. They score, but they leak goals too.

Illia Zabarnyi at PSG anchors their defence. Heorhiy Sudakov has found his feet at Benfica on loan from Shakhtar, and Anatoliy Trubin keeps goal there too. Roman Yaremchuk adds experience up top while Yehor Yarmoliuk of Brentford gives them energy in midfield.

But their absentee list is grim. Oleksandr Zinchenko tore his ACL at Ajax in February. Artem Dovbyk - who famously knocked Sweden out at Euro 2020 - is gone with a hamstring. Ruslan Malinovskyi and Yukhym Konoplya are suspended. That’s four probable starters, all missing.

Yet I still fancy them. They beat Belgium 3-1 playing in Valencia last March, and this group turns up for knockout occasions. Six of their last seven playoff campaigns ended in pain, which only sharpens their hunger.

Team News: Zinchenko (ACL), Dovbyk (hamstring), Matviyenko and Mychavko are injured. Malinovskyi and Konoplya are suspended.

Predicted Lineup: Trubin; Tymchyk, Zabarnyi, Bondar, Mykolenko; Sudakov, Shaparenko; Tsygankov, Yarmoliuk, Hutsuliak; Yaremchuk.

Sweden

Sweden’s qualifying campaign was shocking. The side bagged zero wins from six Group B matches, finishing last in their group behind Switzerland, Kosovo and Slovenia. They only got here via their Nations League C group win under Jon Dahl Tomasson, who was sacked after a 1-0 home defeat to Kosovo.

Graham Potter took over and lost 4-1 to Switzerland before drawing 0-0 with Slovenia. He’s had months to prepare for this specific match, though, and organising defences is his strength.

Their injury situation makes things worse. Alexander Isak isn’t fit - he’s been out at Liverpool since February with an April return expected. Dejan Kulusevski is missing too. That’s Sweden’s two best creators gone. Viktor Gyokeres has 11 Premier League goals for Arsenal this season and becomes the obvious focal point, but without Isak and Kulusevski supplying him, Sweden risk looking one-dimensional.

Victor Lindelof, Anthony Elanga and Isak Hien bring quality. But this is a diminished squad.

Team News: Isak, Kulusevski, Johansson, Holm, Zetterstrom, Bernhardsson and Krafth are all out injured.

Predicted Lineup: Dahlin; Svensson, Lindelof, Hien, Gudmundsson; Ayari, Cajuste; Elanga, Forsberg, Stroud; Gyokeres.

• Ukraine have won three of the last five meetings between these sides, including a 2-1 extra-time win at Euro 2020.
• Sweden haven’t won a competitive fixture since their Nations League C campaign ended in March 2025.
• Ukraine scored in five of six World Cup qualifying group matches.
• Sweden picked up just two points from a possible 18 in qualifying.
• The last three meetings between these teams have all produced at least two goals.

Ukraine deserve to be favourites here. They’re higher-ranked, in better form, and are the designated home side - even if Valencia isn’t Kyiv.

Sweden are still dangerous, however. Gyokeres can produce something from nothing - he’s that calibre of striker. Elanga’s pace gives them an outlet. But I keep coming back to the creative void left by Isak and Kulusevski. Without those two, who feeds Gyokeres?

Neither defence inspires confidence. Ukraine conceded five across their last two qualifiers. Sweden leaked 12 in six group games. I think both sides find the net here - 2-1 Ukraine feels right.

If you’re browsing football betting tips this week, this is the standout fixture of the playoff round.

Both Teams to Score @ $1.75

Ukraine will attack - they scored in five of six qualifiers and have goal threats from Yaremchuk, Tsygankov and Sudakov. Sweden won’t sit deep either. Potter has talked about playing his own style, and Gyokeres will fancy himself against any centre-back pairing. Elanga’s directness gives Sweden an avenue on the counter.

Both defences are weakened by injuries and suspensions. At $1.75 this looks like the most sensible play in what should be tight but open. For anyone using betting apps NZ, it’s a strong market for the most evenly matched semi-final on the schedule.