USA vs Paraguay Prediction: World Cup Betting Tips & Odds

The United States and Paraguay go head to head at SoFi Stadium on Saturday afternoon NZT in their World Cup 2026 Group D opener, with both nations under pressure to start with three points.

Pochettino’s side are slight favourites in front of what should be an enormous Los Angeles crowd, but their 2026 form has been patchy at best. Paraguay are back at a World Cup for the first time since 2010 and won’t treat this as a warm-up.

In this USA vs Paraguay preview, I’ve got my eye on a goals-market combination over $3.50 for anyone checking football betting tips this week.

United States

The United States’ pre-tournament form reads like a coin flip. Their 5-2 thrashing by Belgium in March was ugly - five goals conceded after taking the lead through Weston McKennie - and a 2-0 loss to Portugal three days later poured more doubt on a defence that has been suspect all year.

But a 3-2 win over Senegal in late May changed thor trajectory. Christian Pulisic ended an international drought stretching back to November 2024 and Sergino Dest opened the scoring inside seven minutes. 

Then their 2-1 loss to Germany was more encouraging than it sounds - Antonee Robinson’s volley was superb and the Americans competed well for large periods.

I think Pulisic will be central to everything here. 

He’s got 33 international goals in 85 caps and his confidence looked restored after the Senegal performance. Whether Tyler Adams can control the midfield tempo after managing a calf issue through camp is the thing I’m watching most closely.

Team News: Richards has returned to full training after an ankle injury and declared himself fit. Adams was on load management earlier in camp but is expected to be available. Robinson is fully fit.

Predicted Lineup: Freese; Dest, Richards, Ream, Robinson; Adams, McKennie; Weah, Tillman, Pulisic; Balogun.

Paraguay

Alfaro’s side qualified the hard way - a dreadful start to CONMEBOL qualifying before turning things around with home wins against Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay. Ten goals conceded in 18 qualifying matches. You don’t need me to spell out what that means.

Their recent form is decent though. A 4-0 win over Nicaragua and a 1-0 victory against Greece were solid prep, though Morocco put two past them in late March. 

I wouldn’t write them off. Paraguay’s four qualifying defeats were all by a single goal, so they don’t get blown away.

Miguel Almiron at 32 is the most recognisable name, but Diego Gomez from Brighton is generating more buzz. Julio Enciso adds flair and Antonio Sanabria will lead the line after finishing as their top scorer in qualifying with four goals.

Team News: Enciso picked up a leg knock in the Nicaragua friendly and faces a late fitness test. Alderete and Gustavo Gomez anchor the defence.

Predicted Lineup: Gill; Caceres, G. Gomez, Alderete, Alonso; Cubas, Bobadilla; D. Gomez, Enciso, Almiron; Sanabria.

• The United States have won five of their nine previous meetings with Paraguay.
• USA beat Paraguay 2-1 in a friendly seven months ago in Pennsylvania.
• Only one host nation has lost a World Cup opener in tournament history - Qatar in 2022.
• USA are unbeaten in three consecutive World Cup group-stage openers.
• Paraguay conceded just 10 goals across 18 CONMEBOL qualifying matches.
• USA have conceded in each of their last six outings.

I’m backing the USA here, just. Seventy thousand fans at SoFi will create an atmosphere, and opening a home World Cup adds pressure that I expect Pochettino’s squad to ride.

Paraguay will frustrate them. Alfaro’s defensive structure is well-drilled and I can see a tight first half where not much happens. But Pulisic and Dest have the quality to unlock a packed defence, and Balogun’s movement should cause problems as the game opens up.

I’d be surprised if Paraguay don’t find the net, though. The Americans have been leaking goals all year and Enciso or Almiron drifting into space on the counter feels likely. 2-1 USA is where I’d put my money.

If you’re tracking odds through betting bonuses available across the top New Zealand books, the goals market is where I see value in this one.

USA to Win and Both Teams to Score @ $3.80

USA need three points and have the attacking talent to get them. Pulisic and Balogun both scored against Senegal, and the SoFi crowd will drive them forward from the opening minute.

But this isn’t a clean-sheet side. They’ve conceded 11 goals in four matches since March, and Paraguay have scored in four of their last five outings. Enciso and Almiron will see space on the counter as the USA commit numbers forward.

At $3.80, I’m happy to combine the home win with both teams scoring. For anyone browsing NZ betting sites this week, that’s the angle I’d take.