World Cup 2026: Odds, Best Bets & Multi Bet │ 15 July

France to win ($2.30)

Kylian Mbappe has eight goals and three assists at this World Cup. Ousmane Dembele has five goals and two assists. Between them they’ve accounted for 13 of France’s 16 tournament goals, and neither has been slowed down at any stage. 

To top it off, France’s 2-0 quarter-final win over Morocco barely troubled them - they’ve now recorded three consecutive clean sheets.

Spain have been impressive in their own right - five clean sheets before Belgium’s Charles De Ketelaere became the first player to score against them in the quarter-final. Mikel Merino has scored decisive late goals against both Portugal (90+1) and Belgium (88th minute), and their unbeaten competitive run now stretches to 37 matches since March 2023. 

I get why some punters fancy them here.

But I look at Spain’s attack and it doesn’t scare me the way France’s does. Mikel Oyarzabal has four tournament goals and has been their main outlet, while Lamine Yamal has just one and hasn’t been at his sharpest. Nico Williams came off the bench against Belgium after missing two matches with an adductor injury - I wouldn’t bank on him starting.

Mbappe took a knock to his ankle against Morocco and was subbed in the 77th minute. He called it ‘minor’ and a source close to the France camp told ESPN there were no concerns. I expect him to start.

I should flag that Spain won the most recent head-to-head, a wild 5-4 Nations League semi-final last year. So they absolutely can score against this French defence, and that’s pushed me toward over 2.5 goals in the multi.

✓ Long Shot: Mbappe first goalscorer ($4.60)
✓ Extra Tip: Over 2.5 goals ($1.90)